Season Recap #1: New Jersey Nets

Besides Brook Lopez emerging as one of the most reliable centers, not much went right for the Nets.

For our first 2009-2010 Season Recap, I’d like to introduce you to one of our newest additions. Eric Jenike (aka RBAej) has been playing fantasy hoops since 1995, has been a RotoEvil subscriber since 2008, and is a die-hard Celtics fan. He’s also a very fine writer, as evidenced below.

by Eric Jenike (RBAej)

LAST SEASON (one of the worst ever):

The 2009-2010 New Jersey Nets had the fewest wins (12-70 record), the lowest local television ratings (0.29), and the worst attendance figures in the association. After surrendering 49 second quarter points to the Mavericks en route to their NBA record setting 18th consecutive loss to begin a season, GM Kiki Vandeweghe conceded that the Nets were not championship contenders this season. Talk about an understatement.

In a classy move, the Nets relieved the 2nd longest tenured coach in the league, Lawrence Frank, of duty after consecutive loss number 17 to begin the season to avoid having his name attached to the worst start in the history of the NBA. I highly doubt that the Nets intended on getting their names in the record books with the league’s worst ever start or intended on waiting until March 29th to win their 10th game of the season, but we also cannot ignore the fact that the Nets are a franchise in transition and to a degree these struggles were by design.

As with any team that comes within 3 losses of setting the standard for single season futility, the Nets roster had many players who simply don’t belong in the NBA. Luckily for them, Bobby Simmons, Tony Battie, Trenton Hassell, Rafer Alston, Keyon Dooling, Shawne Williams, Jarvis Hayes, Sean Williams, Chris Quinn, and Chris Douglas-Roberts all have expiring contracts, leaving the Nets with just $22.7 million in committed salary for next season and their terrible record will give them the best odds in the NBA draft lottery of being able to add John Wall or Evan Turner to this roster; plus the Nets also own Dallas’ first round draft pick (#27 overall) and the first pick in the second round of the draft.

WHAT WENT RIGHT (Brook Lopez):

There was a major bright spot for this team. Second year center Brook Lopez is a force in the fantasy game and depending on team needs, the top center in fantasy is either Brook or Dwight Howard. Lopez was nice for your fantasy team’s FT% as a rookie when he shot 2.7 free throws per game at a 79% clip, but in his sophomore season he got to the line 6.2 times per game and drained 81.7% of them. Traditional player raters will only rank him as a top 20 player in free throw percentage, but when you factor in how much better Brook’s foul shooting was than the average center, he becomes a top 5 player to own for that category.

As expected, with Vince Carter out of town and also due to the injuries to Devin Harris and Yi, the Nets relied heavily on Brook on the offensive end and he increased his field goal attempts by 3.5 shots per game this season. Without viable NBA talent on the roster to take some pressure off of him and with his team looking for him to take more shots, his FG% took a hit, but he still finished the year shooting a respectable 49.9%. Although that number is not awful, it actually is slightly below average for his position.

There are a few red flags here that indicate that this might be the real Brook, and not the 53% shooter we saw as a rookie. Despite his reputation as a sweet shooting big man, the numbers don’t really tell the same story. Lopez attempted 1.3 more shots per game from 16-23 feet in his second season than he did in his rookie campaign while he saw his accuracy decrease by 7% from that range, a curious development. His head coach during his rookie season (Lawrence Frank) demanded that he take good shots, and Frank’s interim replacement (Kiki Vandeweghe) reportedly did not make the same demands on the players that Frank did, which may have been a factor in Lopez’ shot selection, and it’ll be interesting to see the effect a new coach might have on that. Former teammate Vince Carter criticized Lopez in November by saying that Brook was “a 7′2 four man shooting jump shots.” Considering Vince is a freak of nature who can get to the rim at will but instead spends most of his time on the perimeter shooting jump shots, he should not be one to talk about the young center’s shot selection. However, Vince might be right in this case and Lopez could benefit from using his size down low a little more than he does.

Lopez has a very complete offensive game for a 22 year old, but if you go by the numbers he is not a great perimeter shooter even relative to other centers. He has a nice hook and when he gets the ball in the high post he is capable of spinning in either direction and finishing with either hand, and he’s actually a fun player to watch when he shuts his mouth and just plays basketball. When he came into the NBA from Stanford, scouts openly questioned why Brook shot just 51% and 48% in his two years in the college game despite physically being one of the biggest players in the nation, so it’s probably not wise to draft him expecting a much better FG% than you got last year.

It’s tough to read too much into a 12-win season, though. We must also consider that defenses were zeroing in on Lopez and forcing him out of his favorite spots and the Nets were relying on him to take and make a lot of shots. I think Brook is interested in improving his mid-range game and becoming an elite scorer in the NBA. The alternative would probably see him abandon the outside shot and instead shoot a higher percentage on less attempts per game as he did as a rookie. Regardless of what path his career ultimately takes, for next year the Nets should have more talent and Lopez will remain a prominently featured player, so he can be expected to continue taking a lot of shots and have the opportunity to develop into a better player on the offensive end. I don’t know if he’ll ever be the leading scorer on a championship contender, but the Nets are a long ways away from that and for now he is the best option they have. Although he only averaged 2.3 apg, Lopez is a solid passer for a center and his assists could go up with better teammates, potentially making him an asset in that category at the center position.

The best part of the Brook Lopez experience is that you know what you’re going to get from him. Looking at Lopez’ monthly split stats shows how remarkably consistent he has been. He’s been steady since day one and has never missed a game to boot. He has the size and athleticism to be an elite contributor on the boards and on defense. The main thing that could hinder him moving forward is the residual psychological damage done by this horrendous season. Lopez looks like Danny Ainge reincarnated with the way that he complains about every single call. There are also reports of him not getting along with teammates. He started getting chippy with reporters towards the end of the season and on March 19 he had a full blown meltdown, stormed out of practice, and didn’t return. Yeah, it was a 12 win season and I’m sure he was incredibly frustrated, but Brook will need to work on being a better leader. He seems like a likeable guy, and hopefully some wins will change his demeanor on the court.

DISAPPOINTMENTS (Chris Douglas-Roberts & Devin Harris):

The Nets might want to consider instituting a team ban on twitter. In addition to some Terrence Williams’ twitter transgressions, Chris Douglas-Roberts suggested via twitter that he’d be open to a trade to Memphis, which is where he played his college ball and is a popular player. It’s tough to say if the Nets’ management views his bad attitude as a product of the losing or as a fundamental flaw in his persona, but the twitter comment was not the first time CDR had complained about being a Net. It’s possible the Nets have soured on him as a person and will look to move in another direction this offseason. It’s worth keeping an eye on as he is their one expiring contract who is worthy of being rostered by an NBA team. He’s cheap and brings something to the table, plus the Nets need bodies, so I’d wager that he’ll be returning to the team next season if he’s not included in some sort of sign and trade.

The Nets have been significantly better on the defensive end when CDR is in the game versus when he’s on the bench. That doesn’t say THAT much since the Nets were beyond awful even with him in the game, but it’ll probably be enough to get the Nets to exercise their team option for $850,000. Still, as of this writing, Nets president Rod Thorn remains non-committal about bringing him back for another season, which seems to be more of a reflection of his attitude than his play, which doesn’t bode well for his development as a player. He has potential when given minutes and is a nice defensive player, but his lack of perimeter shooting limits his appeal for fantasy purposes unless he is getting enough minutes and shots to be relevant in the scoring category. With Courtney Lee and Terrence Williams in town, along with 3 draft picks and a lot of free agent money to spend, I don’t think CDR is going to be seeing big minutes in New Jersey next year (barring injuries), and will most likely be an afterthought for fantasy purposes.

Devin Harris was coming off of his first all-star season in 2008-2009 and narrowly missed out on winning the NBA’s Most Improved Player Award. Health permitting, he looked poised for a huge breakout campaign in ‘09-10 with Vince Carter out of his way. Instead, he submitted quite possibly the most disappointing fantasy season of any player in the NBA not named Jose Calderon. His field goal percentage, free throw percentage, points, rebounds, assists, and steals all decreased as he hobbled through his third consecutive injury riddled season.

Harris has now played UNDER 70 games in four out of six seasons in the NBA. His strength as a player is his ability to get to the foul line, which is both a good thing and a bad thing. During his All-Star 2009 season, the only guard who attempted more free throws per game than Harris was Kevin Martin. Considering that Kevin Martin would shock fans if he were able to stay on the court for 70+ games at this point, I don’t have to explain how worrisome it is that Harris takes a similar beating due to his style of play.

With Devin, if he’s not missing games with a knee injury, it’s a shoulder, or a wrist, or even a respiratory infection. He just finds unique and creative ways to miss games. The Jason Kidd/Devin Harris swap was once lauded as a steal for the Nets, but in retrospect I’d bet if you asked most analysts who won that trade now they’d answer without hesitation that it was Dallas. Devin is just 27 years old, an age where many players achieve their statistical peak and are able to play with consistency. If Devin doesn’t get it together soon, it’ll be too late and we’ll remember him much like we remember guys like Grant Hill, Larry Johnson, and Anfernee Hardaway: promising careers derailed by injuries. I suspect his team is willing to move in another direction, which is crazy when you consider that he is an All-Star caliber point guard right in the middle of his prime years.

By his third year in the league, Harris had had clearly become a difference maker on the defensive end. During the ‘06-07 season with the Mavericks, the Mavs allowed 8.6 less points per 100 possessions when he was on the court versus when he was riding the pine. So what happened since then? He got traded to New Jersey for Jason Kidd midway through the ‘07-08 season, started shooting a boatload more threes despite being woefully inefficient from downtown, AND became a liability defensively, with the Nets allowing 2.2 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court during his first full season with the team. Last season he was just an abomination. Blame it on the Nets being terrible and getting outscored no matter who was on the court, blame it on Devin trying to play through injuries, but the Nets allowed 6.8 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court than without him on the court last year. That is a sorry number for a guy who was once considered a defensive specialist.

With all that said, Devin actually did have a decent second half of the season as long as your expectations weren’t too high, plus he has nice chemistry with Brook Lopez. Health is a Mikhail Prokhorov’s checking account sized question mark, but he still has the potential to put up huge scoring, assist, and steal numbers while being one of the best players in the league for FT%. With the #1 pick in the draft slated to be point guard John Wall, opportunity could also be in question if the Nets win the lottery and choose to go that route. The Nets no longer view Devin as their franchise player and if they draft John Wall I’d expect Harris to be included in a sign and trade for one of the many available free agents, and then we’d have to reevaluate his situation on a new team.

LOOKING AHEAD (Terrence Williams’ impressive rookie year):

Other than Lopez, perhaps the only other positive from this season was the play of rookie Terrence Williams down the stretch. Williams led Louisville to a Big East championship as a senior and established himself as a late lottery pick. In March, he finally got an opportunity to play significant minutes in the NBA and produced big time, winning Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month honors for the month of April. Williams is a jack of all trades player, possessing the total package with the exception of elite shooting ability. He can handle the ball, create for others, hit the glass effectively, and in certain situations play up to four positions.

I would say that T-Will exceeded expectations on the offensive end as a rookie, averaging 14 ppg over the final 23 games of the season. He does not project to be a big-time scorer, so I wouldn’t draft him next year expecting him to score over 15 points, but the rest of his stats are absolutely for real if he remains in a situation where he can play big minutes. His lack of minutes to start the season depressed his final averages, making him a potential sleepr in fantasy drafts for the ‘10-11 season. To see what he’s capable of, check out his March and April split stats from last season, and then figure that the steals seem to be on the low side.

Many Nets fans are so enamored with him that they would like to see him play point guard instead of Devin Harris. Although that won’t happen, he helps out with the playmaking duties from the wing anyway, and he averaged an impressive 7 rebounds and 5 assists in March/April. Despite not being known as a good perimeter shooter, he has never been accused of being shy, either. In limited minutes, Williams attempted 100 threes as a rookie, but he made just 31. If this guy can work on his accuracy and contribute a three per game, he could be a sneaky fantasy force. I think more steals should come, as he averaged 2.3 spg as a senior in college, and I’m a little surprised that he didn’t register more swipes as a rookie in the NBA.

Obviously, his situation should be re-evaluated once the Nets are finished re-tooling their roster during the offseason. He’s a keeper for the Nets either way, but if you’re looking for Terrence Williams as a 2010-2011 fantasy sleeper, you’ve got to be rooting for the Nets to draft either John Wall or a big man, because a swingman like Evan Turner would likely keep Williams in a bench role. At this point, it’s going to be impossible for the Nets to keep him glued to the bench and I bet he’ll still get plenty of minutes and be worth owning, but you’d obviously prefer to see him crack the starting lineup and get over 30 mpg. He is oozing with potential, both in real life and in the fantasy game, and I’d hate to see him get blocked by a high lottery pick or veteran free agent.

Terrence seems to have come a long way from the player who got benched for a game in December for tweeting that he regretted being drafted by the Nets and couldn’t earn consistent minutes to start the season on a 1-19 team. But if you let his play do the talking, you’re quite happy with his progress. Still, the 22 year old has a lot of maturing to do. On the night before the Nets’ final regular season game against the Heat, during a season where the team’s losing, bickering, tweeting, and injuries turned off all but the most die-hard Nets fans, Williams and teammates Tony Battie, Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, and Bobby Simmons found a way to let their fans down one last time.

Instead of getting a good night’s sleep and at least pretending like they cared, they were seen out at the Delano until closing time whacking back tequila shots with a bunch of blondes. Call me crazy, but I don’t think that’s the kind of veteran leadership Vandeweghe envisioned when he brought Tony Battie on board. It’s probably not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things since the team had nothing to play for, plus my biggest complaint is that I can’t seem to find any pictures online of this outing, but I’d be wholeheartedly endorsing Terrence Williams as a future star if I were convinced his head was in the right place.

He was considered somewhat of a headcase in college after he raised some eyebrows by comparing himself to LeBron James. He has never been in trouble with the law or anything like that though, so I’m optimistic about his future. Hopefully he’s spending the offseason working on his 3-point range and not clubbing with Tony Battie, but if I see his name appear in the papers for any offseason incidents I’ll be officially worried. So far, so good though. Williams is working out with DeMar DeRozan and Raptors’ Assistant Coach Eric Hughes this offseason, and for the second straight summer he’ll spend some time training with Gary Payton, and reportedly will also be training with the legendary Tim Grover, who has worked with Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, among others.

LIMITED CEILING (Courtney Lee & Yi Jianlian can’t make the leap):

There is another fantasy relevant player on this roster, as Courtney Lee had some mild sleeper appeal because of his increased role on New Jersey compared to the role he had as a rookie on the Eastern Conference Champion Orlando Magic. Lee isn’t much more than an NBA role player, so prospective fantasy owners should continue to keep their expectations in check. He struggles when matched up with taller players defensively, which pigeonholes him into the shooting guard position exclusively against most teams.

This is good for the taller and more versatile Terrence Williams, but not so good for Lee. Lee is supposed to be a guy who can match up with the opposition’s best wing player, but in Orlando he was overtaken by Mickael Pietrus for that role, and he didn’t do much to establish his reputation as a defensive stopper in his first year in New Jersey. Offensively, Lee is not a guy who you want initiating his own offense, so he’ll benefit from having improved teammates next year. Moving from Orlando, where he was receiving kick-outs from Hedo Turkoglu and Dwight Howard for open threes to New Jersey, Lee saw his 3P% drop from 40.4% as a rookie to a borderline unacceptable 33.8% as a sophomore. He has a sweet stroke and is perhaps the only Net wing player who can effectively stretch the floor, so he’ll continue to see minutes. Of course, if New Jersey drafts or signs a big name free agent swingman Lee will be significantly downgraded. Considering he only managed to average 12.5 ppg on a terrible team that was devastated by injuries, we should put a fairly low ceiling on his offensive potential. As a spot up shooter, fine, as a scorer, not so exciting.

One position that I am sure the Nets will be trying to upgrade in either free agency or through the draft is power forward. Yi has yet to find himself in the NBA. Among PF’s who played over 10 games and 20 mpg last year, Yi had the worst % at the rim in the entire NBA, scoring on only 50.9% of his shots from directly under the basket. He shot 40% from the field this year after making just 38% of his shots last year. Did I mention that he is 7′0 tall and weighs 250 lbs? Those numbers are pathetic. The Bucks, who drafted Yi, tried to make him into a traditional big man and gave up on him after his rookie year, trading him to New Jersey for Richard Jefferson. The Nets seemed to encourage him to play on the perimeter in his second season, and he attempted 2 more three-pointers per game in his second season.

Last year, in his third season, Yi appears to have been asked to hit the glass and play as a big man once again. He averaged 12 ppg and 7 rpg, career highs, but he played in just 51 games, the 3rd time in three years that he’s failed to play in 70+ games. Yi’s apparent statistical gains are irrelevant, because they are not helping the Nets win games and I highly doubt they are looking to get him more involved next season. There are also legitimate questions about his actual age. If he is really 22 years old, then he might still have room to grow, but if he’s older than that we might not see much further development from the former #6 overall draft pick. Consider me unenthusiastic about the Yi era, but he could be an effective reserve coming into games and stretching the floor. I wouldn’t touch him for your fantasy team, though.

MIDSEASON ACQUISITION (Humphries can’t solve their problems):

Midseason acquisition Kris Humphries surprised some by his play upon his arrival in New Jersey. He was a laughably bad pick for the Jazz back in 2004 and coach Jerry Sloan hated him. He has barely gotten off the bench in 6 seasons as a pro and needed 20 mpg on a terrible team to average 7 points and 6 rebounds as a Net. However, poor shot selection and an unwillingness to move the ball frustrated teammates. I do believe the Nets brought him in hoping that he’d help solve some of their rebounding woes, as he IS effective on the glass on a per minute basis, but Humphries, even though he is nicknamed “Bowflex,” is too undersized to match up with most NBA power forwards and is nothing more than a role player at best. I bet the Nets would like him to opt out so they can get that extra $3.2 million in cap space, but there is no way Humphries will get that money in free agency, so I’m fully expecting him to exercise his player option and return to this team.

WORST OF THE WORST (Alston and both S. Williams bought out):

There aren’t a lot of nice things to say about the players on a 12-win team. The Nets just ended up cutting Sean Williams mid-season when they had to dump a player to complete an Eduardo Najera for Kris Humphries/Shawne Williams trade. Sean Williams can block shots, but he quite honestly might have worn out his welcome in the NBA. All you have to do is look at his Yahoo profile picture to know that he’s probably not worth the trouble.

The Nets wisely cut SHAWNE Williams before he even joined the team, a bright move in retrospect, because hours after being cut he was arrested for manufacturing and distributing narcotics or something to that effect. This is at least Shawne’s 5th brush with the law since he’s been in the NBA, so I can’t imagine him getting another shot in the league even though he has demonstrated the ability to score in the rare instances where he has had the opportunity to play. He could end up being a nice pick in your Euroleague fantasy draft, though.

Rafer Alston was also on the Nets’ books this season, but he left the team in a mid-season buyout so that he could sign with a playoff team. Rafer didn’t exactly run with the opportunity; he signed with the Heat, was handed a starting job and played well at first before seeing his production nosedive. Then in early March he went AWOL and was suspended by the team for the rest of the year. Supposedly he is considering retirement. Alston has limited appeal outside of deep leagues (>12 teams) even when he is a full-time starter, and at 34 years old and with not one team in the league bad enough at the point guard position to require his services as a starter, I’m thinking Skip To My Lou’s days of fantasy relevance are over.

FORGET ABOUT ‘EM (do these guys belong in the NBA?):

Trenton Hassell and Jarvis Hayes are almost a sure thing to be gone next season. Hassell was an effective defensive specialist once upon a time, but that ship sailed years ago. Jarvis Hayes is a mediocre three-point shooting specialist who doesn’t defend. I’m thinking this was likely his last year in the league. Bobby Simmons was brought in only because he had a $10.5 million expiring contract in the summer of 2010, and it’s unlikely that the Nets view the 30 year old former NBA Most Improved Player as a part of their future.

Backup point guard Keyon Dooling showed that his surprising development into a 40% 3-point shooter in his 9th NBA season was not a fluke, as he continued to have success behind the arc this season. That bumps him up from “avoid at all costs” to “possibly ownable” in certain situations if injuries force him into the starting lineup. Still, his team option is worth $3.8 million and there is no way the Nets will bring him back at that price. His salary for next season is guaranteed for $500,000, though, so even if the Nets renounce his rights he’ll still represent a $500,000 cap hit for New Jersey. 26 year old backup center Josh Boone has a $2.9 million qualifying offer and I don’t expect the Nets to keep him around at that price. The big man spent the offseason working admirably on his game, but it’s just not translating into on-court production and he has almost no upside.

Other expiring contracts are veteran center Tony Battie and point guard Chris Quinn. Battie was once a moderately effective defensive center with the Celtics due to his length, but he’s now 34 years old and I wouldn’t be shocked if this was the end of his long and mediocre NBA career. Chris Quinn had been a steady three-point shooter for much of his career, but made only 31.3% of his triples last year. He only played 8 mpg and attempted just 32 threes, so I’m assuming he can still shoot. Quinn plays hard and is a natural point guard, but he lacks the athletic ability to play a major role at the NBA level. He is most famous for getting insulted by Shaquille O’Neal as a matter of fact, and considering his limited skill set I’d bet that this is all he will be remembered for. When Shaq was a Sun, he was asked how he liked playing for Phoenix and he responded by saying, “I love playing for this coach and I love playing with the Suns. We have professionals who know what to do. No one is asking me to play with Chris Quinn or Ricky Davis. I’m actually on a team again.” Ouch.

NEW OWNERSHIP (Russian billionaire purchases the Nets):

Thanks to Mikhail Prokhorov, OFF the court developments are easily the most exciting thing happening for this franchise right now. The Nets have been playing in the Izod Center in East Rutherford, New Jersey, an arena 15 miles outside of Newark, NJ with no public transportation access. Factor in a 12-win team with no recognizable stars to pique the interest of casual fans and this team is hemorrhaging money. The Sports Business Journal reports that the Nets operated at a $64 million loss last season, despite dumping highly paid stars Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson over the past two seasons. For the ‘10-11 and ‘11-12 seasons the Nets will play in the Prudential Center in Newark, which should slightly help with attendance for the next couple of seasons, and then as soon as their new arena is finished in Brooklyn they’ll be making the move across the river.

Russian billionaire Prokhorov (the 40th richest man in the world) is the one making the move possible. Prokhorov agreed to a deal that would give him an 80% stake in the basketball team and a 45% stake in the new Brooklyn arena, pending current majority owner Bruce Ratner and his real estate development group securing the land and financing for the new arena and obtaining the league’s approval. League approval is not official yet, but it is considered a formality at this point. In return, Prokhorov will significantly bankroll the construction of the new arena and the basketball operations of the Nets effective immediately. Ratner purchased the team in 2004 with the intention of moving it to Brooklyn, but economic and legal hurdles halted his progress in that endeavor. It got to the point where it was not financially feasible for Ratner to continue this project on his own, which prompted Prokhorov’s involvement. At the time of this writing, construction has begun on the Barclay Center in Brooklyn, and it sounds like the Nets will be making the move to Brooklyn for the 2012-2013 season with Prokhorov at the helm.

Prokhorov is already changing the tone of the franchise. He recently told 60 Minutes: “I am real excited to take the worst team of the league and turn it to be the best,” and also added that he promised to build a championship team within three years. Prokhorov is not blowing up the Nets organization immediately, but he is already implementing some changes. He has kept the Nets’ scouts on the road during the postseason to scout potential free agents, whereas under Ratner’s ownership group that was looking to save money the scouts would be on summer vacation by now. Rod Thorn will reportedly be back as President of Basketball Operations. Prokhorov DOES plan to incorporate a European into a management position, but stated that it’d take time for a European to understand the NBA landscape, which I believe is why Thorn is being retained.

At any rate, the Nets fortunes seem to be changing. Prokhorov feels that the team’s value could rise to a billion dollars after the team moves to New York and puts a winning product on the floor. That’s ambitious, but I like his enthusiasm. The Nets are currently searching for a coach and would like to have someone in place by the June 24 NBA Draft. I have heard former NBA head coaches Jeff Van Gundy and Avery Johnson mentioned in rumors, as well as Duke coach Mike Krzyewski and Celtics’ Assistant Coach and defensive mastermind Tom Thibodeau. The Coach K rumors seem to be dead, and the Nets might be waiting until the end of the playoffs to discuss positions with some current NBA assistants because they are not yet conducting formal interviews yet.

FREE AGENCY (Nets have 2nd most cap space in the league):

For next season, the salary cap ended up being $56.1 million, which is $3-6 million higher than many early estimates. The Nets are $26.3 million under the cap, second only to the Knicks who have $34.1 million in cap room. Kris Humphries has a player option to return, and if he opted out of his $3.2 million deal the Nets would have additional cap space. Humphries seems to be the guy that franchise center Brook Lopez clashed with the most, so I’d bet the Nets are secretly hoping he opts out. I wouldn’t count on it, though. The Nets are still the Nets and until the franchise moves to New York and displays a commitment to winning, it’s a long-shot to expect any of the top free agents to consider signing with New Jersey.

Nine teams have $14 million or more in cap space, so the competition will be fierce for free agents. I expect the Nets to make runs at guys like Carlos Boozer, David Lee, and Amare Stoudemire while more desirable franchises duke it out for LeBron, Wade, and Bosh. If the Nets can’t draw one of those guys or instead are able to add a max or near max salaried swingman such as Joe Johnson or Rudy Gay, they should be strong players for free agents such as Udonis Hasmlem, Al Harrington, Tyrus Thomas, and Drew Gooden with their remaining available money, who would probably like the opportunity for minutes in New Jersey. Given their poor reputation and the fact that the franchise is in the middle of a move, the Nets might have to overpay to land a top free agent, so hopefully they don’t make any crippling financial moves this summer.

STATE OF THE TEAM (needs improvement everywhere):

New Jersey was 27th out of 30 NBA teams in rebounding rate this year. New Jersey allowed opponents to shoot 37% of their shots right at the rim, the highest percentage in the league. You don’t need to be Dean Oliver to know that NBA players make the highest percentage of their shots close in. This team needs another big man that can rebound and help Lopez patrol the paint. Hiring a defensive minded coach is a good start, because seeing guys like Devin Harris not putting in the effort is discouraging. It’s also going to require changing the personnel to right this ship and I don’t think you want Yi in your starting lineup if you’re trying to win basketball games.

The Nets were last in the league in offensive efficiency and 5th worst in the league in defensive efficiency. They have a nice young center that they can build around. They have a very effective complimentary player in Terrence Williams. They have a spot-up shooter with some potential on defense in Courtney Lee, two first round picks this year, and over $26 million in cap space. After six years of trying they finally have a new Brooklyn arena deal in place, and they have an owner who is committed to spending money to bring in adequate coaching and scouting, who is at least talking like he wants to build a winner. Surely we’re going to see a much different squad than the pathetic group that took the court last season. As a general rule of thumb, when an NBA team wins 12 games, most of the players aren’t invited back.

CAN THEY TURN IT AROUND?

The Nets are set up quite nicely in terms of the draft for the next couple of years. In 2011 they own their own pick and the Warriors’ unprotected 2nd round pick. In 2012 they have their own pick and the Warriors’ first round pick top 7 protected, which means if the Warriors pick in the top 7 it gets rolled over to 2013, also top 7 protected. At that point, the Nets get the Warriors’ first round pick top 6 protected in 2014, and if the Warriors are still picking in the top half of the lottery by then, the Nets get Golden State’s second rounders in 2014 and 2016. Plus, in 2012 they have their own second rounder and Miami’s second rounder. That’s a total of ten picks in the next three years, including 5 first rounders!

With a little luck, particularly in this year’s lottery, this team could turn around sooner than many people realize. With new ownership, they may cease being the Clippers East. Time will tell. Of course, the last time the Nets had ten picks in three years they traded two for Vince Carter, traded another two for Cliff Robinson, and proceeded to draft Antoine Wright, Mile Ilic, Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, Hassan Adams, and Sean Williams with the remaining picks. That’s why they’re the Nets, and that’s why they’re in this mess in the first place.