Season Recap #11: Memphis Grizzlies

Thanks to Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, the Grizz led the league in both points in the paint and offensive rebounds this past season.

The NBA season is almost over, but we continue to roll with more Season Recaps.

by Eric Wong (Evil E)

LAST SEASON (a big improvement):

While the Grizzlies missed out on the postseason for their 4th year in a row, they made significant improvements in several areas and were one of the most pleasant surprises this past season. In 2008-09, they sported a 24-58 record and went just 13-26 under Lionel Hollins. That year they ranked 30th in assists, 30th in total rebounds, 29th in scoring, and 25th in opponents FG%.

But with a full summer to prepare and implement changes, Lionel Hollins led Memphis to a respectable 40-42 record in 2009-10. In late March they were actually 5 games over .500 (38-33), but folded down the stretch due to injuries. Thanks to the offseason addition of Zach Randolph and the improved play of Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies finished 1st in offensive rebounds (13.0 per game), 2nd in rebounding differential (+3.8), and 4th in total rebounds. They also led the league in points in the paint, were 4th in free throw attempts, and 7th in scoring, resulting in an offensive rating (108.3 points per 100 possessions) that ranked a respectable 12th (sandwiched between the Lakers and Thunder).

Of course, Memphis still had several problems. Their decision to sign Allen Iverson on Sept. 10th, 2009 turned out to be a bad move for everyone involved, which wasn’t surprising considering that Memphis only made the move to sell more tickets. The 7-time All-NBA performer played just 67 total minutes for the Grizz before taking a leave of absence, and both sides parted ways just two months after the initial signing. While coach Hollins handled the situation as best he could, the team got off to a very poor start (1-8 after 9 games), Mike Conley Jr. really struggled, Iverson came across as a selfish has-been, and Grizzly fans suffered.

As a team, they struggled once again in several key areas: 29th in assists, 27th in turnovers, 29th in assist/turnover ratio, 30th in threes made, 26th in 3P%, and 24th in opponents FG%. However, their improved play was evident in the NBA’s end of season awards, as Hollins finished 10th in Coach of the Year voting (six 3rd place votes) and Gasol tied for 2nd in the Most Improved Player voting (nine 1st place votes). When the season ended, Hollins was rewarded with a 3-year contract extension.

IMPRESSIVE POST PLAY (Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph):

When Marc Gasol was traded for his brother Pau in February 2008, most people considered him to be a big body with limited upside. Marc had a decent ‘08-09 rookie season for Memphis, but he still didn’t win over many fans. So in the summer of 2009 he decided to get serious, regularly running up a mountain in Spain called Tibidabo and losing 25-30 pounds in the process. Thanks to his improved conditioning and better agility, the younger Gasol performed much better on the basketball court.

Gasol made 58.1% of his shots in ‘09-10, which set a Grizzlies franchise record and ranked 4th in the NBA. His 14.6 points and 9.3 rebounds per game meant that he and Al Horford were the only players from the 2007 draft to average over 14 and 9 (not bad for the #48 pick). Marc also did a better job of blocking more shots while fouling less, as he went from 1.3 blocks and 3.8 fouls per 36 minutes as a rookie, to 1.6 blocks and 3.7 fouls per 36 as a sophomore. He also showed off fine passing skills (his 2.4 assists per game ranked 4th among all centers) and a knack for getting steals (his 1.0 spg ranked 5th among centers). Despite missing 13 games at the end of the season, Gasol still impressed enough to tie Kevin Durant and George Hill for 2nd place in the Most Improved Player voting (Aaron Brooks won the award).

The only decline for Gasol was his free throw accuracy, as he dropped from 73% FT to just 67% in ‘09-10. Gasol got to the line a solid 5.4 times per game, so if he can get his FT% back in the low-70’s it would give his fantasy value a nice boost, while also improving his ppg average by a couple of tenths. In just his 2nd NBA season, Marc may have already become the Grizzlies most reliable player. The selection of fellow center Hasheem Thabeet did not hurt his minutes at all, but he’s going to be a free agent after the 2010-11 season. Memphis will surely offer him an extension, but several other teams will be interested as well. Either way, the Pau Gasol trade doesn’t look so lopsided after all (Memphis also gets the Lakers’ 1st round pick this year to finalize the deal).

The main reason why expectations were tempered for Gasol is because Memphis added veteran Zach Randolph last summer. More or less, Randolph has been a 20 and 10 guy wherever he’s played, so there were legitimate concerns about how Marc and Zach would be able to co-exist, and if BOTH players would be able to post strong stats. However, they quickly answered those questions, as both guys finished the season ranked as Top 40 fantasy players using per game statistics.

In fact, despite the presence of Gasol, Randolph posted career-highs in both offensive rebounds (4.1 per game, 1st overall) and total rebounds (11.7 per game, 3rd overall), making Memphis one of the most dominant rebounding teams in the league. Zach also managed to make 48.8% of his field goals, his highest mark since the ‘02-03 season when he was still a reserve. Surprisingly, Randolph also managed to improve his steals (1.0) and blocks (.4) while cutting back on his turnovers (2.1). While Z-Bo is still a below average defender, his scoring & rebounding production were often good enough to outplay his opponent.

Of course, there are still several question marks surrounding Zach Randolph. He’s never been considered a “model citizen,” so it wasn’t a huge surprise when he was recently named in two police reports (within a 24 hour span). In the less serious case, one of Zach’s friends assaulted a man outside of an L.A. strip club. Much more serious however, is the fact that an Indianapolis police informant has described Randolph as a “financer” for known drug dealers, and that Z-Bo has allowed one in particular (Arthur Boyd) to use his vehicles and his home to conduct his “biznass.”

For now, GM Chris Wallace is supporting him: “Unless some other information surfaces, Zach remains a valued member of the Grizzlies family and Memphis community,” and Randolph is also saying the right things: “I have been very intentional in distancing myself from anything that would jeopardize my personal and professional relationships.” Ummm yeah, you need to work a little harder on that Zach. Also worth noting is that this is the final year on his current deal, and a $17.3 million expiring contract could be valuable around the trade deadline. If Randolph gets himself in more trouble, he could be shipped out of Memphis, and it will surely effect how much he makes on his next contract.

LIKELY LEAVING MEMPHIS (Rudy Gay):

First things first: Rudy Gay is a restricted free agent this summer, which means that Memphis will be able to match any offer sheet that he signs. For the past year, Grizz owner Michael Heisley has stated that he intends to keep Gay, and here’s what he recently said: “Rudy is going to be out there. But here’s the No. 1 thing: The option on what we pay him is mine. So when I say we’re going to have Rudy next year, that’s a pretty good indication that we’re going to have him.” So if you’re a Memphis fan, should you trust Heisley? Well, there’s no doubt in my mind that Memphis would be happy to keep Rudy for $10-11 million per season, but what happens if another team offers him a max contract?

Here’s what Gay recently had to say: “No matter what happens, I think the team that wants me the most will have me, and we’ll see whether that’s Memphis or any other team.” If you ask me, it sounds like Gay will be happy to leave Memphis if another team is willing to give him more scrilla. And since several teams with money to spend are going to strike out on the “tier 1″ free agents, one of those teams could very well offer Gay a max deal. The leading candidates? I foresee Rudy signing a max or near-max offer from either the Knicks, Wizards, or Clippers. He would be a great fit for any of those teams, and I don’t think Heisley will match any offer that starts north of $12 mill per season.

Now is Rudy Gay worthy of a maximum contract? Probably not. While he’s a very impressive athlete, he hasn’t proven to be a go-to scorer in the clutch, he’s not able to create for teammates, his defense isn’t as solid as it should be, and he hasn’t improved much at all since his breakout ‘07-08 season. However, he doesn’t turn 24 until August, and in the right situation, Gay could blossom and become a star. Since he has the POTENTIAL to become a Top 25 player in this league, teams with cap room will probably view him as being worthy of a near-max deal.

However, Gay’s fantasy owners from this past season probably won’t agree, because Rudy’s career-worst 32.7% shooting from 3-point land and below average 75.3% shooting from the free throw line were pretty disappointing. He did play a career-high 39.7 mpg (3rd in the league behind Monta Ellis & Gerald Wallace), but on a per-minute basis, his stats either declined or stagnated. To improve his all-around game, Gay really needs to work on becoming a better playmaker. Just how bad was he at creating offense for others? Well, in 2009-10 he was 1 of only 3 players to average more than 19 points but LESS than 2 assists per game. The others were Zach Randolph and Amare Stoudemire, but it’s more excusable for them since they’re proven low-post scorers.

Of course, Gay would also benefit from playing with a more talented point guard who knows how to push the pace. For the teams that I suggested, imagine Gay playing in Mike D’Antoni’s uptempo offense, or him running the floor with John Wall & Gilbert Arenas in Washington, or Baron Davis & Blake Griffin in Los Angeles. If his new team feeds him more fast break passes to keep him happy, Gay might also work a little bit harder to improve the other aspects of his game, such as defense & playmaking. Grizzly fans won’t be happy to hear this, but I see Rudy leaving Memphis and taking his game to the next level.

TIME TO STEP UP (OJ Mayo):

If Rudy Gay leaves town, then OJ Mayo is going to play a much larger role next season. At the age of 22 he’s already proven to be a solid NBA starter, but he has a ways to go before becoming a legit star. Much like Rudy, OJ needs to focus on improving his defense and playmaking abilities. Coming out of college, some people considered Mayo to have the potential to play point guard in the NBA, but after two seasons, he’s yet to convince the person that matters most. In this SUPERB interview (that I’m going to reference several times) with Memphis Commercial Appeal sports columnist Geoff Calkins and the Grizzlies head coach, Lionel Hollins explains why he doesn’t think Mayo is equipped to run the point:

“It’s the mentality. O.J. has been a scorer his whole life. Now, can he at some time in the future? That’s up to him and how he opens and grows mentally into the game. But the point guard has to make decisions for everybody else, not just yourself. The point guard has to know when to shoot and when to pass. Guys who play the two, they never think like that. They think the next shot is their shot.”

With a career average of only 2.9 assists per 36 minutes (on a team that has ranked 29th and 30th in assists the past two seasons), the stats certainly back up Lionel’s claim. On the other hand, Mayo DID do a fine job of cutting back on his turnovers, going from 2.6 to’s per 36 as a rookie to just 2.0 per 36 in year two. So he seemed to make fewer mistakes with the ball in 2009-10, but at the same time, OJ didn’t handle the rock nearly as much as other guards.

One underrated strength of Mayo’s is that his body is able to withstand the rigors of an 82 game season. In ‘08-09, he played in all 82 games and his 3,120 total minutes ranked 3rd in the league. In ‘09-10, he again played in all 82 games and his 3,113 total minutes ranked 6th in the league. With Gay out of the picture, perhaps his minutes will rise even further from 38 mpg to 39-40. Another important positive is that OJ went from making 46% of his 2-point shots as a rookie, to a rock solid 49% on 2-pointers this past season.

However, one disturbing stat for a player considered to have a scoring mentality is that Mayo got to the free throw line just 3.2 times per game, down from 3.4 as a rookie. Among the 210 players who attempted 100+ freebies in 2009-10, Mayo’s per minute FTA rate ranked a very uninspiring 155th. Quite simply, this is a number that HAS to improve, and both the Grizzlies and Mayo’s fantasy owners will benefit, because the guy is a career 84.5% shooter from the charity stripe.

Another area where Mayo declined was on defense. While he did grab a few more steals than the year before, he often got outplayed by his 2-guard counterpart. According to 82games, Mayo posted a 16.3 PER for every 48 minutes that he spent at shooting guard. However, his shooting guard counterpart posted a 17.9 PER for every 48 minutes, resulting in a -1.6 difference. This was WORSE than his rookie year, when he posted a 16.3 PER but allowed a 17.4 PER for his SG opponents (-1.1). To see some game examples, just check out this 3 game stretch in early November:

11/2 @Sacramento: Mayo scored 22 points, 9-20 FG, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, but Kevin Martin went for 48 points, 14-27 FG, 5 rebounds, 4 steals.

11/4 @Golden State: Mayo scored 14 points, 4-13 FG, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, but Monta Ellis went for 24 points, 10-23 FG, 7 rebounds, 12 assists, 5 steals.

11/6 @LA Lakers: Mayo scored 15 points, 5-12 FG, 4 rebounds, 0 steals, 2 turnovers, but Kobe Bryant went for 41 points, 19-30 FG, 4 rebounds, 1 steal, 0 turnovers.

The disappointing part about Mayo’s D is that he actually tries pretty hard on that end of the ball, but he’s simply either smaller or slower than his opponent on most nights. Indeed, there are several POINT guards who are taller and longer than him. Still, I believe that OJ is capable of being a much better defender, and now is the time for him to step up. For the 2010-11 season, one should pay close attention to his defense, his free throw attempts, his assist/turnover ratio, and how he responds to negative press. After all, now that USC has been hit hard by NCAA sanctions due to Mayo and Reggie Bush accepting gifts, opposing fans are going to be ruthless wherever he goes. And if Rudy Gay is gone, OJ’s own fans and the local media are going to be much more critical of him.

HOW MUCH MORE CAN HE IMPROVE? (Mike Conley):

In his 3rd NBA season, Conley started all 80 games that he played in and he posted career-highs in minutes, points, assists, steals, blocks, and FG%. However, many fantasy owners who drafted Jr. may have dropped him early on, because he got off to a horrendous start. In 15 November games, Conley averaged a mere 26.4 minutes, 8.3 points, 4.7 assists, .9 steals, 2.3 turnovers, and .6 threes on 37.6% FG shooting. For people (like myself) who doubted his abilities as an NBA starter, the poor start only reinforced our concerns. However, in that same interview with coach Hollins, he had a logical explanation for Conley’s early season struggles:

“I think, for Mike, the way the season started last year, with adding Zach and with adding AI, I think that in his mind he was supposed to retreat, that it was written in stone that this is the way it was going to be. Instead of saying, ‘No matter what they say, I’m going to try to show them.’ Once he started playing against him (AI), then he saw that he should be competing. But it’s only natural when you play with a great player like that.”

Sure enough, Conley played much better once the Iverson saga ended. After Dec. 1st, Mike Jr. averaged a respectable 33.4 minutes, 13.0 points, 5.4 assists, 1.5 steals, 2.0 turnovers, and 1.1 threes on 45.8% FG shooting. So if you’re looking for a baseline 2010-11 statline projection, there you have it. The key question is: how much better can Conley get?

One of Mike’s strengths is that he’s proven to be a reliable outsider shooter. His rookie year he struggled to adjust to the longer NBA 3-point line, making just 33% of his outside attempts. However, in the past two seasons since he’s combined to shoot 170-429 from beyond the arc, for a solid 39.6% 3P mark. As a result, fantasy owners would love to see him attempt more trey balls so that he can make around 1.5 per game.

Conley is also adept at grabbing steals, as his per game average ranked 24th and his per minute average (among players who averaged 20+ minutes) ranked 19th. However, his ability to hand out assists is mediocre, which is disappointing for a guy who’s supposed to be a pass-first PG. In 2009-10, among all players who dished out 100+ assists, Conley’s 24.8% assist percentage ranked only 44th. Several PG’s who are more known for their scoring (such as Nate Robinson, Mo Williams, and Aaron Brooks) posted higher assist rates, so it’s an area where Mike needs to improve.

Also troubling is the fact that his rate of getting to the foul line has declined every single season. He attempted 3.2 free throws per 36 minutes as a rookie, but just 2.8 per 36 in ‘08-09, and 2.6 per 36 in ‘09-10. Of course, Conley’s small stature (6′0, 175 pounds) is not the most conducive for him to get into the lane and absorb contact. Being one of the smallest starting point guards in the league does not help him defensively either. According to 82games, Conley’s PG counterpart averaged 20.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 9.7 assists per 48 minutes while posting a 52.8% effective field goal percentage. Per 48 minutes, this resulted in an 18.5 PER for his opponents, compared to just 15.4 for himself (-3.1 difference).

For good reason, Memphis management continues to praise Conley, saying that they don’t need a new starting PG, they just need the 22-year old to keep improving. I’m sure that several people disagree with that line of thinking, but for now, Conley is their only point guard under contract. In the upcoming draft, the Grizzlies have THREE 1st round picks, and they’ll surely use one of them to select a PG with complementary skills. For more on the top candidates, continue reading…

HOPEFUL HE’LL RETURN (Ronnie Brewer):

In an effort to make a playoff push (and show fans that they care), the Grizzlies sent a future 1st round pick to Utah before the trade deadline in exchange for athletic swingman Ronnie Brewer. The draft pick is Top 14 protected in 2011, Top 12 protected in 2012, Top 10 protected in 2013, and Top 9 protected in 2014/2015. Unfortunately, Memphis fans barely got to see Brewer on the court.

In his Grizz debut, Ronnie played just 12 minutes before leaving with a strained hamstring. He missed nearly a month of action, returned to play a total of just 68 more minutes, then sat out the rest of the season after tweaking his hammy. With Gasol also injured down the stretch, the Grizzlies had no chance of making the playoffs. While we can’t judge his limited numbers with Memphis, it’s worth noting that Brewer averaged a career-best 2.8 assists vs. only 1.0 turnovers per game in 53 games for Utah.

On the flipside, Brewer’s scoring output declined considerably last season. After averaging 15+ points per 36 minutes in both ‘07-08 and ‘08-09, he barely scored over 10 points per 36 in ‘09-10. He experienced a similar decline in his free throw shooting, as Brewer went from shooting 76% FT on 3.4 attempts in ‘07-08 and 70% FT shooting on 4.3 attempts in ‘08-09, to just 64% FT shooting on 2.3 attempts in ‘09-10. He also continued to struggle from behind the 3-point arc (career 23.4% 3P shooter).

Ronnie is a restricted free agent this summer, and if they don’t want to pay Rudy Gay more than $12 million per season, they would be wise to re-sign Brewer. Ronnie just turned 25 in March, so his best days are still ahead of him. He’s a very good defender, is great in the open court, and is capable of playing both swingman spots (albeit much more effective at shooting guard). If they do bring him back, Memphis will implore Brewer to improve his offensive game, but he’s considered to be a hard worker and high character guy. I expect him to return.

STRUGGLING YOUNG BIGS (Hasheem Thabeet, Darrell Arthur, Hamed Haddadi):

If you did a poll, 9 out of 10 NBA fans would probably tell you that Hasheem Thabeet is already a bust. That’s what happens when you’re the #2 pick and you average just 3 points in 13 minutes. As advertised, Thabeet was/is very raw offensively. Even in six D-League games, he scored just 13.8 points on 50% FG shooting. In basketball’s minor leagues, wouldn’t you expect a 7′3 top prospect to average at least 18 points on 56% shooting? Alas, we shouldn’t expect much scoring from Hasheem for awhile.

Offensively, Memphis fans just have to hope that he can set solid screens, crash the boards, and catch the ball around the rim (unfortunately, he doesn’t have the greatest set of hands). But Memphis drafted Thabeet for his defense, and he still has intriguing potential on that end of the floor. In his rookie season, the Tanzania native blocked 89 shots in 883 minutes, or 1 swat for every 9.9 minutes of action. Compare that to 2-time Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard, who swatted 1 shot every 12.5 minutes this past season. Not bad, huh?

Clearly, Thabeet can be a game-changer with his ability to block and alter shots, but he’ll need to do a better job of avoiding fouls if he wants to be effective and earn major minutes. Thabeet averaged 6.6 fouls per 36 minutes this past season, which was very similar to Greg Oden’s first year in the league (6.5 fouls per 36). However, if the Grizz are expecting Thabeet to turn into the second coming of Dikembe Mutombo (they plan to train together this summer), the outlook doesn’t look good, because Deke averaged a mere 3.6 fouls per 36 minutes as a rookie and just 3.3 fouls per 36 minutes over his entire career. In his recent interview, coach Hollins continued to defend the young big man:

“Hasheem is so far away from being what we think he can be because everybody just exploited his size. And he got away with it in college because he gets to stand in the middle. If we had no illegal defense Hasheem would block a similar amount of shots in the pros than he did in college. But the fact that you’ve got to know when to be in the paint, know when to go, it’s all a learning experience. The offense part, he’s got a lot better. The game is still fast and quick and when you’re not an offensive player you don’t think that you’re going to get the ball, a lot of times you don’t want to get the ball. We’re trying to take him to that level, too. But to say he’s a bust after one year because, for whatever reason, I just think…”

Since he hasn’t been playing the sport for very long, I’m willing to give Thabeet a couple more years to prove himself before calling him a bust. However, drafting him ahead of Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings, and Ricky Rubio does seem like a MAJOR mistake considering the limited upside of Mike Conley. At BEST, Thabeet can carve out a career like Mark Eaton’s (11 seasons, 28.8 minuts, 6.0 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.5 blocks, 3.4 fouls), but I’m skeptical of that happening.

Thanks to the arrival of Zach Randolph, the improved play of Marc Gasol, the addition of Thabeet, and a torn pectoral muscle, Darrell Arthur is now a forgotten man in Memphis. The former Kansas star had a solid ‘08-09 rookie season in which he averaged 5.7 points and 4.6 boards in 63 starts, but he barely played in 2009-10. After having pec surgery in mid-October, Arthur did not return to the court until February. Since there were only 8 games where he got to play 20+ minutes, it’s hard to judge Darrell’s season.

However, he showed what he can do against smaller lineups, as Arthur posted 16 points (8-12 FG), 13 boards (6 offensive), and 3 blocks in just 26 minutes vs. the Warriors (3/20), and 8 points (4-7 FG) and 12 boards (4 offensive) in 22 minutes vs. the Rockets (4/6). He just turned 22 in March, so it’s way too early to write Arthur off, but it looks like his role will be limited in 2010-11. However, a year of hard work could pay off, because Randolph & Gasol will be free agents in 2011.

In his 2nd NBA season, Haddadi played 240 total minutes, but his per minute stats declined across the board. And if you thought Thabeet’s foul rate was poor, just look at Hamed’s 8.6 personals per 36 minutes this past season. Even in 18 D-League games, Haddadi could only post 5.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks in 17.5 minutes. He still has one year left on his current contract, but I’m expecting this to be his last season in the league.

MORE ROOKIES (Sam Young, DeMarre Carroll, Lester Hudson):

Besides Thabeet, the Grizzlies had a few other rookies this past season. Sam Young actually emerged as the team’s 6th man, averaging 7.4 points and 2.5 rebounds in 16.5 minutes while playing 80 games. He showed decent scoring ability (23 games with 10+ points) and was able to get to the free throw line effectively (4.8 freebie attempts per 36 minutes), but he shot a woeful 19.6% from beyond the arc (11-56) and his defense was not as good as advertised. I ranked him #31 in my Updated Rookie Rankings due to the possibility of Gay leaving, but since he’s already 25, his upside is somewhat limited.

Carroll proved to be a decent defensive player in his first year, but his offense was pretty limited, as he averaged a mere 9.5 points per 36 minutes on under 40% FG shooting. But DeMarre is an athletic player who was drafted to be an energy guy off the bench, as evidenced by his 6.8 boards and 1.3 steals per 36 minutes. He could take on a larger role in year two, but won’t have deep league value unless one or two guys go down.

Lester Hudson was drafted by Boston, but they waived him in January and Memphis snagged him off waivers. In back-to-back games in early February against the Lakers and Cavs, Hudson showed off his skills by totaling 21 points and 3 steals in just 27 minutes. The guy can flat out score, as shown by the 27.5 points he averaged in college. My understanding is that Hudson has a non-guaranteed contract for the 2010-11 season, and if he shows some improved playmaking skills, he should be able to make the Grizzlies roster.

FORGET ABOUT ‘EM (Marcus Williams, Jamaal Tinsley, Steven Hunter):

This past season, Williams played 62 games, Tinsley played 38 games, and Hunter played 21 games for the Grizzlies. However, all three are free agents this summer, and none of them are expected back. A former 1st round pick in 2006, Marcus Williams still hasn’t taken his game to the next level. One problem is that he really struggles with his shot, as his career marks of 38.6% FG and 32.1% 3P suggest. He’s always been considered to be a good passer, but his 6.6 assists and 3.1 turnovers per 36 minutes in ‘09-10 really weren’t that special. If Memphis selects a point guard in the upcoming draft, they’ll likely pass on bringing Williams back.

One player they definitely won’t be inviting back in Jamaal Tinsley. The former Pacer hadn’t played since the ‘07-08 season, but the Grizzlies were desperate enough for PG help that they gave him a look this past season. Jamaal joined the team after Iverson left, and at first he posted some decent numbers: 48 points and 21 assists over a 4 game stretch in late November. But then his minutes declined, he started to play poorly, and barely got off the bench over the final few months. According to Lionel Hollins, Tinsley acted the same way Iverson did, which explains his diminished role:

“I gave him his respect. He didn’t think I did. He said I never talked to him? He didn’t want to talk. Just like Jamaal Tinsley. Jamaal’s people would call up and say, “You’ve got to talk to him, he’s struggling, he doesn’t know his role.” I’m like, “that’s BS.” He didn’t want to accept his role. That’s when they go out and start talking that crap.”

Hunter is another former 1st round pick. In fact, he was selected 15th overall in 2001, AHEAD of Zach Randolph, Brendan Haywood, Gerald Wallace, Samuel Dalembert, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, and Mehmet Okur (oops). While he had some decent moments earlier in his career with Orlando, Phoenix, and Philly, Hunter has barely played the past two seasons. He’s not exactly old (will turn 29 in October), but the fact that he hasn’t been a reliable backup in recent years may scare off NBA teams from offering him another contract.

ADDRESSING THEIR NEEDS (who will they draft?):

In addition to their own 1st round pick (#12), the Grizzlies own the #25 pick from Denver and the #28 pick from the Lakers (the Gasol for Gasol trade). With three 1st rounders, they can definitely address some needs and make some noise in this year’s draft. Going back to that superb Commercial Appeal interview once again, here’s what Mr. Hollins had to say about their team needs:

“We need a backup point guard, we need another 2/3 that’s got size and length, we need a stretch 4 or, if not a stretch 4, another 4 that’s athletic and can play above the rim, that can block shots and rebound, maybe even play some 5.”

Okay, since I’m projecting Rudy Gay to skip town, I believe that a sweet-shooting small forward (ideally with size and length) will be their top priority. In this case, the ideal candidate is Xavier Henry out of Kansas. The guy has an awesome 6′11 wingspan and 36.5″ vertical leap, he made nearly 2 treys per game on close to 40% 3P shooting, and despite playing just one year in college, has a polished NBA-ready game. If Henry falls to Memphis at #12, they will be ECSTATIC. Their backup choice is probably WAC Player of the Year Luke Babbit out of Nevada. He too sports a 6′11 wingspan and an impressive 37.5″ vertical leap, but still is not considered a big-time athlete. However, Babbit did average 21.9 ppg to go along with excellent shooting percentages (50% FG, 42% 3P, 92% FT), so he’ll surely be considered. Here is some footage of the sweet-shooting lefty:

Finding a backup point guard is also a pressing need, so they’ll likely select one of several that they’ve recently worked out. At #25, DraftExpress.com currently projects them to select Kentucky guard Eric Bledsoe. His PG skills are debatable (he had more turnovers than assists), but he’s athletic, has a long wingspan, and is a reliable outside shooter. Another guy they’ll consider is Armon Johnson out of Nevada. Standing 6′3, 195 pounds with a 6′8 wingspan, Johnson has an excellent frame. However, he’s a poor shooter (just .5 threes on 24% 3P shooting) and his lack of steals (just .8 per game in 34+ minutes) is very disconcerting.

As for an athletic 4 man that can block shots and play above the rim, that sounds like either Larry Sanders or Jarvis Varnado. Both guys made great strides over their college careers, both guys can run the floor very well, and both have long wingspans and blocked lots of shots in college. Either guy would be a nice complement (and possible 2011-12 replacement) to the slow-footed Zach Randolph. As long as they stay away from any 7′3 centers, their fans will be pleased.