Season Recap #2: Washington Wizards

What will the Arenas & Blatche show look like next season?

Our second 2009-2010 Season Recap examines the Washington Wizards, and was written by our resident trading guru Hunter (aka catman2051). You may remember him as the author of the excellent “Trading Ethics & Strategy” article, or as the extremely helpful RotoEvil Forum Moderator. As always, he’s here to provide you with in-depth analysis and quality suggestions.

by Hunter (catman2051)

LAST SEASON

Of all of this year’s lottery teams, the Wizards fell furthest from preseason expectations. Believing that better health and more veteran depth was all that separated the Wizards from the East’s elite teams, GM Ernie Grunfield and owner Abe Pollin chose to trade the #5 pick in a perceived “weak” draft class for Randy Foye and Mike Miller. With offensive guru Flip Saunders on board and Arenas looking healthy in preseason action, the Wizards were projected by some folks to finish as high as #4 in the Eastern Conference. However, whatever hope existed of a promising playoff run unraveled before the calendar struck 2010. Through the season’s first 2 months, the team was just 10-20.

Then things went from bad to worse when Gilbert Arenas, upset about a card game with Javaris Crittenton, brought four guns into the locker room. Arenas was suspended for the season and Washington chat boards were littered with talk about whether the Pollin family would try to void his contract. Crittenton was later suspended for the season as well. It was time to re-make this team and Grunfield eventually traded Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler, Deshawn Stevenson and Antawn Jamison for Josh Howard, Al Thornton, James Singleton and Zydrunas Ilguaskas. Ilgauskas never showed up for a team event and was predictably bought out so that he could re-sign with the Cavaliers. Josh Howard, who was playing inspired ball for 3 games with the Wizards, hurt his knee in his fourth game with the team and did not return. What did the Wizards gain from trading their veterans? Cap space for this offseason, a better chance to evaluate their young players, and a chance for a fresh start. More on the young players and cap space later.

WHAT WENT WRONG?

The team was dysfunctional from the start. Arenas never seemed to be on the same page with Saunders and Caron Butler appeared unmotivated. In 47 games with the Wizards, playing nearly 40 minutes a game, Butler shot just 42% from the floor (down from the 45-47% he had shot in the previous 4 seasons), handed out just 2.3 assists, and nabbed just 1.4 steals per game. Haywood, playing in a contract year, was a rock star on defense. Unfortunately, everyone else thought defense was a bad word. And clearly, the team lost focus following the Arenas/Crittenton gun incident.

JAVALE MCGEE
McGee’s per 36 minute numbers were similar to his rookie season, except for a nice jump in blocks from 2.4 to 3.8 per 36. Following the trade of Haywood and Jamison, McGee had a golden opportunity to take hold of the starting job. Unfortunately, given early foul trouble and defensive lapses, McGee was unable to hold onto the starting job. McGee was very inconsistent from the time that the veterans were traded through the end of March. Fortunately, McGee showed more consistency in April. In 23.5 minutes per game in April, McGee averaged 13.3 points, 8.5 boards, and 2.9 blocks in 8 April games (compared to just 8.7 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.9 swats in 17 March games despite playing the same number of minutes).

NICK YOUNG
Likewise, Nick Young’s per 36 minute numbers dropped across the board, except for a nice jump from 1.1 to 1.7 3’s (which was accompanied by a drop from 44.4% to 41.8% shooting from the floor). And while his minutes nearly doubled to 35 minutes/game in April, on a per minute basis, only his 3 pointers made improved thanks to better shooting (45.5% FG). However, these numbers and his 17 point per game scoring were hollow when considering that he added just 2 boards and 1 assist per game, while barely registering in steals and blocks despite the April increase in minutes.

AL THORNTON
Thornton also failed to make a jump in his 3rd year. What’s worse is that his numbers declined. He earned fewer minutes both with the Clippers and with the Wizards, and his per 36 numbers largely dropped (except for a nice jump in FG% from 44.6% to 47.3%). Thornton was unable to carve out more minutes in Washington than he was given in LA and his averages were nearly identical in both cities, except for an increase from .5 to .8 steals per game in Washington. For the season, Thornton averaged just 10.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, .6 steals, .5 blocks and .2 threes over 27.7 minutes per game. In the 46 games that Thornton started, his numbers were still disappointing, with 12.8 points, 5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, .7 steals, and .6 blocks in 32.5 mpg.

JOSH HOWARD
The once-promising small forward was obtained to help replace Caron Butler’s production. Playing through another injury plagued season, Howard’s contributions to the Wizards lasted just 3 games and 7 minutes into a fourth game before he suffered a knee injury. In the 3 healthy games that Howard started for the Wizards, he brought energy on both ends of the court. However, like Nick Young, outside of scoring 17 points per game over those 3 games, he did not do a ton more with averages of 4 boards, 1.3 assists, 1 steal and 1 3-pointer made per game, shooting 43% from the field and 71% from the line. Howard’s per game and per 36 minute averages for the season both dropped considerably from past seasons.

RANDY FOYE
Foye was brought into Washington to provide minutes at both guard spots, but became the team’s starting PG when Arenas was suspended. Unfortunately, Foye’s per 36 minute numbers for the season did not increase from last year; nor did they increase when he went from a reserve role to a starting role in Washington, outside of a jump in assists. There is a pretty good Washington Wizards blog page at truthaboutit.net. The folks over there do not see Foye as a starting PG in the NBA given his inability to keep the ball moving on offense and what appears to be a lot of meaningless dribbling or delay in getting the team into its offense. Based on my observations of Foye’s game, I agree with this assessment.

DOMINIC MCGUIRE
McGuire was unable to build upon a sometimes promising sophomore season. His per 36 numbers dropped significantly (4.5 points, 6.6 boards, 0.6 steals, 0.5 blocks) and he was ultimately dealt to Sacramento, where he continued to play a similar insignificant role. Most telling is his significant drop in minutes. In ‘08-09, McGuire played 2,072 minutes over 79 games (26.2 per game). This past season, McGuire played just 307 minutes over 53 games (5.8 per game). It is highly doubtful that McGuire has relevance in any fantasy league for the foreseeable future.

WHAT WENT RIGHT?

Despite all of the dysfunction and poor overall record, there were some things that went right. What went right began with an appreciation by management that an aging core of Arenas/Butler/Jamison/Haywood, even when all were on the court, was not the right mix to join the East’s elite teams. While I do not expect to see Washington join the Lebron/Wade/Bosh/Amare sweeps, the Wizards will have a chance to reshape the team and, with the right moves, become a playoff team as soon as next season. Individually, there were several things that went right.

GILBERT ARENAS
He’s an easy target for what went wrong with the Wizards, but there were also some positives. First, he was healthy for all 32 games prior to his suspension and the suspension gave his knee more time to heal fully. Second, he proved that he was still able to score, averaging 22.6 points per game (would have been good for 11th in the league if he qualified). Third, he averaged a career high 7.2 assists (8.0 apg over his final 17 games). Fourth, his 3 point shooting (35%) was close to his career average (36%), while making 2 treys per game. Fifth, although he was not amongst the NBA leaders in FTA per game as he had been in past years, the 6.5 attempts per contest showed that he was not afraid to attack the paint despite the knee injury. Finally, Arenas avoided a suspension lingering into next season and he avoided jail time. The Wizards are not going to attempt to void his contract and he should be very motivated for next season.

ANDRAY BLATCHE
Blatche was the single biggest beneficiary of any trade deadline deal this year. In 31 games after Jamison was traded (not counting the game where he was benched for insubordination), Blatche averaged 23 points, 8.5 boards, 3.7 assists, 1.6 steals, .8 blocks and even made 8 3-pointers during that time. He could not miss in February (55% FG / 81% FT), but as teams began to double and sometimes TRIPLE team Blatche, his percentages dropped significantly (47/65 in March and 43/77 in April).

Andray averaged roughly 37 mpg after the Jamison trade, and while his per minute points and assists improved, the other numbers were largely consistent with his previous per minute numbers. Why the jump in points & assists? First, Blatche’s usage rate soared as Saunders immediately made Blatche the go-to guy on offense. The assists jumped both because of the increased usage rate and because Blatche has legit passing skills for a big man (though he also can throw the ball away, as he averaged nearly 4 turnovers per game in March and April). Second, word out of Washington is that as soon as Jamison was traded, Blatche increased his work in the gym as he knew he would now be “the man.” Blatche has a nice array of offensive skills, possessing a quality jump shot, ability to drive, quickness for a big man, and craftiness around the basket.

SHAUN LIVINGSTON
Following a horrific knee injury in 2007, Livingston has worked hard in an effort to prove that he still belongs in the NBA. In his 26 game stint with the Wizards, he proved just that. Over the final 9 games of the season, Livingston averaged 15.8 points, 3.5 boards and 6.4 assists, shooting 65% from the floor and 79% from the line. These numbers are flat out great considering the injury Livingston suffered. But as good as these numbers look, and as great a story as Livingston was this year, his lateral quickness has not fully returned (and it will probably never be what it was pre-injury), so his ceiling is not nearly as high as it was before he got hurt. Despite this, as noted below, Livingston may have played too well for the Wizards to expect his return next season.

JAMES SINGLETON
Coming over from Dallas in the deadline deal, Singleton added energy to the Wizards’ front line. In 24 minutes per game with the Wizards, Singleton averaged 6.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and .5 steals. While his energy translates well in terms of NBA value, he likely will not find his way onto fantasy rosters even in deep leagues. While Singleton looked like a fantasy contributor in boards and blocks in March, his numbers dropped significantly in April. In March, Singleton averaged 28.5 minutes, 7.2 points, 7.8 boards and 1.2 blocks. However, in April, those numbers dropped to 20.5 minutes, 3.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and .4 blocks; perhaps foreshadowing his future role with the team.

KEY QUESTIONS HEADING INTO NEXT SEASON

1. Who Will Be Back?
Arenas, Blatche, Young, McGee and Thornton are all under contract for next season. Howard has a team option for $11.84 million next season. The Wizards have publicly said that they will decline this option (which makes sense for an injury prone player with a questionable commitment to self improvement), but that the club is interested in retaining Howard’s services via a longer contract at something less than $11 million per season (obviously). Foye is a restricted free agent, and while the Wizards might extend a $4.8 million qualifying offer to Foye, it’s doubtful that the Wizards will retain Foye if he signs an offer sheet with another team for mid-level money. Quinton Ross has a $1.15 million player option; though whether or not he exercises it is largely immaterial to the team’s rotation or any fantasy team.

Mike Miller, Livingston, Singleton, Oberto and Boykins are all unrestricted free agents. Mike Miller, a great glue guy, has expressed some frustration being on losing teams over the last few years (Memphis, Minnesota and Washington). So I project Miller signing with a contender this summer, even if it is for less money than some teams might offer. Washington would likely have to overpay to retain Miller and that is unlikely to happen. Livingston would be a great fit on this team if Saunders could convince Arenas to give up some of the ball handling responsibilities. However, with the way Livingston handled the very public try-out Washington gave him, Livingston will likely have several offers to consider, and perhaps, will be considered the top PG on the market by some teams. In the season’s final week, Livingston expressed a desire to sign with a team that was closer to contending than the Wizards. I project Livingston signing with another team (Heat or Knicks maybe), but the Wizards will make a big effort to keep him. Singleton is a solid energy big man who would improve bench depth for a lot of teams. The Wizards will likely try to keep Singleton, but he also will weigh his options. At this time, I think it’s 50/50 as to whether or not he returns to the Wizards (and it might depend on who they draft). Oberto and Boykins will not return.

2. How Will They Fill Out Their Roster?
The Wizards finished tied with the Warriors for the 4th worst record in the NBA, but lost a tiebreaker and will have the 5th best chance of landing the top pick in the lottery (10.3%). The Wizards would absolutely take Wall or Evans if they were fortunate enough to land a top 2 pick. However, odds are that the Wizards pick 5th or 6th and would likely be looking at one of Demarcus Cousins, Derrick Favors, Wesley Johnson or Al Aminu with the pick. My guess is that the Wizards take one of the forwards, preferring Favors or Johnson. Cousins has well documented focus, authority and motivation issues. The Wizards have been first hand witness to young players with these same issues (i.e. Blatche) and I do not think reasonable folks in the Wizards front office believe that they have a locker room presence to help Cousins develop mentally. Cousins WOULD provide a solid skilled front court player with bulk, but the character risk, given what already exists in that locker room, is probably too much of a risk.

Favors is considered by some folks to have more upside than Cousins, with less character concerns, but he still needs some development. That would be a lot of growing pains along the front line to add Favors to a still developing pair of Blatche/McGee. However, if the Wizards believe that Favors has the ability to become an Amare Stoudemire or Dwight Howard-type (these are some “best case scenarios” I have seen), then Favors will likely be the pick. But Wes Johnson’s scoring ability and range should be enticing for a team that could use another jump shooter. Plus, if they draft Johnson, the Wizards will not need to overpay to try to retain Josh Howard. Meanwhile, Al Aminu’s athleticism will be enticing if the Wizards believe he can improve his range in order to play the SF spot.

From the free agent ranks, the Wizards will have between $16 and $21 million to spend (depending on whether they extend a qualifying offer to Foye). However, despite having enough to make a max offer, I would not count on any max offer-type free agents coming to Washington. Other teams will have as much money to offer, and those other teams will also offer more stability and a better chance of immediate success. The Wizards may attempt to overpay Rudy Gay by offering a max or very near max offer, but I suspect a more enticing team will offer something very similar (and the Grizzlies have a right to match any offer made to Gay).

Other than possibly re-signing Josh Howard, there are not too many impact guys who would likely want to come to the dysfunctional Wizards squad. Joel Pryzbilla has a player option next season. Given that the Blazers just extended Camby, perhaps Pryzbilla does not exercise his option and becomes a FA target. I recommend that the Wizards throw some money at JJ Redick, a restricted FA, but he will draw quite a bit of interest from other teams (and Orlando will have the right to match an offer). Assuming Livingston moves on and the Wizards do not retain Foye, they will need another PG. Will Bynum would be a nice fit on this team. Hakim Warrick is an option for the frontcourt. Warrick chose the Bucks this past season because he believed he could get more minutes there than in Cleveland in order to increase his market value for this summer. That did not work out so well for Warrick, as he could not play enough defense to satisfy Scott Skiles. However, his decision making process is telling as Warrick might see the opportunity for more playing time in Washington than in some other cities.

An early guess at their ‘10-11 rotation (assuming they don’t win the lottery):

PG: Arenas, W.Bynum
SG: Young, Foye
SF: J.Howard, A.Thornton
PF: Blatche, Favors
C: McGee, Singleton

(if they take Wes Johnson in the draft, then I would project the team signing Hakim Warrick)

3. What Will the Arenas & Blatche Show Look Like?
Assuming a marquis FA does not sign with the Wizards (likely), Arenas and Blatche will be the team’s top 2 options on offense next year. First, if Blatche works hard this summer (not a given), I do not believe Blatche’s numbers will decline much from what he was doing following the Jamison trade. Instead, Blatche should benefit from having another go-to guy on the floor as he will not have to face as many double teams. This could increase his efficiency and help him stay strong in the 4th quarter. I watched a number of Wizards games in the second half of the season. While I have not seen any stats to support this, I recall in many of those games Blatche doing very little in the 4th quarter other than jacking up bad, contested shots, instead of: (a) attacking the basket, or (b) moving the ball on offense. I believe the 4th quarter drop in production was the result of two things: (a) physical and mental fatigue, and (b) Blatche’s belief that, as the team’s primary scorer, it was up to him to produce points in the 4th quarter.

Hopefully Blatche proves to be “7 day Dray” all summer and works hard 7 days each week to improve his physique and conditioning to avoid fatigue. Keep in mind that during the three years when Arenas scored between 25 and 29 points per game, Jamison also got around 20 ppg. Second, as mentioned above, there are a lot of positives about Arenas’ season that should provide optimism for next season. I believe Arenas has been humbled and I believe Arenas will come back wanting to make good with the entire Wizards’ organization and its fans. Blatche reported that he was in contact with Arenas after several games and Arenas gave him advice. This is a good sign of the duo’s future compatibility. Blatche also has some room to mature (as does Arenas). The floor for Blatche? Well, he started the first 9 games of last season, sharing the court with Arenas, Butler and Haywood. Not including the one game where he was riddled with foul trouble, Blatche averaged 15.8 points, 7.5 boards, 2 assists, .4 steals and 1.6 blocks, shooting 54% from the field and 85% from the line. I believe Blatche improved as a player over the season, that he will work harder this offseason than he has in years past, and that he will likely come closer to the numbers he averaged down the stretch than the numbers he posted during the beginning of the season.

4. When Will McGee Become More Consistent?
It is well accepted that most big men take some time to develop. First, big men generally need to add strength before they can consistently bang with the big bodies in the NBA. Second, big men usually need to improve their footwork when they get to the NBA. McGee needs to continue to work on both areas. While he added some weight last offseason, he needs to add more this offseason so that he can do a better job holding his ground on defense and boxing out. Also, McGee’s footwork in the low post is deplorable, and I have significant doubt as to whether he will ever develop a back-to-the-basket game. These are areas that a lot of raw big men have to work on. However, JaVale also needs to improve his focus and fundamental understanding of what he should be doing on the court (hoops IQ). The youngster often loses focus of the player he is guarding and is suseptible to foul trouble given that he bites on the first move too often. Additionally, I am not sure the cause, but I have read snippets of Saunders’ post-game comments where he points out that McGee repeats mistakes that get him benched (i.e., taking a 15 foot jump shot and not passing).

If someone can help McGee navigate through these hurdles, there exists the potential for a very good franchise center. Among centers, his athleticism is matched only by Dwight Howard. He can take the ball to the basket and use his long arms to finish. His mid-range jump shot is decent and should improve. His length, athleticism and long arms should be huge assets on defense as soon as he: (a) gets stronger, and (b) avoids pump fakes. If McGee is unable to overcome his weak hoops IQ, he’s well suited for a Chris “Birdman” Andersen-type role as an energy big man off the bench. If, however, he is willing to sit down with someone he will listen to this summer, watch plenty of game tape, and improve his understanding of the game (in addition to hitting the weight room), McGee could become a top fantasy center. No one should expect him to make the full jump in one offseason. The hope is that Lemonhead shows enough improvement that he is able to stay on the court for 28-32 minutes next year, and does enough to prove to the Wizards front office that he is their future center. Rick Kamla, host of NBA TV, is a big fan of the Wizards center. Kamla went through a list of young guys and picked McGee as the most likely to take off just as Blatche did this year.

5. Is Nick Young Ready to Step Up & Become the Team’s Starting SG?
In that same discussion of who might be the next young player to take off, Kamla’s NBA TV co-host, Dennis Scott, picked Nick Young. There is little doubt that Young has the ability to score big points as he possesses an improving outside shot and an ability to finish in the paint. However, Young’s downside is that, similar to Washington’s other young players, he tends to lose focus on defense and is a soft player. If he returns from the offseason with a renewed dedication to D, I suspect he will earn a large share of the SG minutes. However, it’s his future willingness to become a tougher player that will determine his fantasy outlook. Since Young has yet to exhibit much toughness, his fantasy upside is likely that of a late round 3-point shooter/scorer and nothing more.