Season Recap #3: Minnesota Timberwolves

How much improvement can we expect from Jonny Flynn next season?

For our next recap, I’d like to introduce you to a man who has been following Jonny Flynn since his high school days in Niagara Falls and his college days at nearby Syracuse. For the past 4 years, Jonah Bronstein has been a sports reporter for the Niagara Gazette, primarily covering college basketball and a handful of NBA (Raptors) games. Here he helps us answer several key questions about the T-Wolves.

by Jonah Bronstein

LAST SEASON

The Minnesota Timberwolves 15-67 record wasn’t the worst in the NBA, but they may very well have been the league’s worst team. The Wolves finished last in John Hollinger’s final power rankings, due in large part to the fact that they were outscored by an average of 13.8 points while losing 22 of their last 23 games. For the season, Minnesota ranked dead last in scoring margin (-9.6), 29th in offensive efficiency (above only New Jersey) and 28th in defensive efficiency (ahead of Golden State and Toronto).

Unlike the 12-win Nets, the Wolves didn’t have any fantasy diamonds in their rough run to the lottery. PF/C Al Jefferson had a down year coming off major knee surgery, new coach Kurt Rambis blunted the value of youngsters PF Kevin Love and PG Jonny Flynn, and only swingman Corey Brewer and — in a surprising development toward the end of the season — C Darko Milicic significantly outperformed preseason projections. Forward Ryan Gomes continued to hold only modest value, while the rest of the roster was irrelevant in all but the deepest of leagues.

Minnesota ranked 3rd in the league in pace factor, behind Golden State and Indiana, but those extra possessions didn’t translate into extra production. Rambis was intent to implement his version of the triangle offense, which didn’t suit the skills of Flynn, nor backup PG Ramon Sessions, and was one of the reasons Rambis ultimately decided Jefferson and Love were incompatible on the floor. Unless GM David Kahn elects to make a coaching change, there appears to be little chance Rambis will modify his offensive system next year, as he was clearly more concerned with trying to fit square pegs into triangle holes this season than he was with putting his players in position to win games.

With copious cap space, a guaranteed top-5 pick, and two other 1st rounders that could be used in trades, the Wolves will be in the market to add at least two impact players this summer.

PLAYER BREAKDOWNS

PF/C Al Jefferson
Jefferson flourished under the coaching of low-post savant Kevin McHale in ‘08-09, setting career-highs in points (23.1), free throw shooting (73.8% on 5.0 attempts) and blocks (1.7). But he blew out his knee after 50 games. Jefferson returned in time for the start of training camp, eight months removed from ACL surgery and 20 pounds later, and was likely a Top 15 pick in most fantasy drafts (although E warned to be wary of Big Al).

While working his way back from the knee injury, Jefferson found there to be a lot less post-up opportunities in Rambis’ triangle. His points (17.1) and FGAs (14.8) declined considerably from his first two seasons in Minnesota, and his minutes (32.4), rebounds (9.3), blocks (1.3) and FTAs (3.5) were lower than his ‘06-07 season in Boston. He did set a career-high in assists (1.8), but that’s about it. On top of being less than a year removed from a major knee operation for most of the season, Jefferson also had to deal with the death of the grandmother who raised him, a family illness that kept him out of two late-season games, Achilles tendonitis, a DUI arrest, and trade rumors. In the end, he was barely a Top 50 player.

PF Kevin Love
Love had to be a frustrating player to own this season. He missed the first 18 games with a broken hand, then came back and showed that he had added 3-point range to complement his rugged inside game. Over the next nine weeks, the 21-year-old averaged 15.9 points, 12.3 rebounds and 2.9 assists. But after he missed two games in mid-January with an illness, he was relegated to a bench role. Rambis said he didn’t like how Jefferson and Love complemented each other defensively, and that he wanted Love to spark the second unit. Love still managed 19 double-doubles in the final 37 games he played in, but mixed them in with lines like 12 minutes, six points, six rebounds (March 8 vs. Dallas) and 17 minutes, three points, three assists (March 17 at Utah). Love’s frustration boiled over after a game in which he was forced to guard Carmelo Anthony, and he publicly criticized Rambis’s offensive and defensive philosophies.

PG Jonny Flynn
I work as a sports writer in Niagara Falls, N.Y., and around these parts, Rambis is a dirty word. Nobody believes that guys like Darren Collison, Jrue Holliday or Ty Lawson are better players than Flynn, and they blame the triangle offense and herky-jerky playing time for the fact that, at various points in the season, all were out-performing Flynn. In his quest to make it to the NBA, Flynn realized at an early age that he needed to master the pick and roll. He became a natural at the two-man game, as evidenced by his Rookie of the Month performance at the Vegas Summer League, but struggled in the actual season when he wasn’t permitted to play to his instincts.

Flynn never publicly criticized Rambis like Love did, but he privately chafed in the offense, and would probably rejoice if traded to a team that gave him more offensive freedom. Aside from limiting his ability to create, the demands of the triangle forced Flynn into mistakes that cost him minutes. For anyone who used a Top 120 pick on him, Flynn was a disappointment. He was a liability in FG% (41.7%) and turnovers (2.9), and his assists (4.4) and steals (1.0) were sub-standard for a starting point guard. His biggest value was that he occasionally sprung for 20-plus points or eight-plus assists and shot 82 percent from the line. The early returns on Flynn’s defense are poor. Minnesota gave up three more points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor, and for a waterbug point guard with exceptional quickness, he couldn’t be counted on for too many steals. Some analysts, such as ESPN’s David Thorpe, believe Flynn’s natural role is a sparkplug off the bench.

SG/SF Corey Brewer
Brewer returned after missing most of last season with a knee injury and began to justify the Top 10 pick Minnesota invested in him three years ago, though his play was inconsistent. In October/November he averaged 2.1 steals and .75 blocks, but that defensive production waned over the rest of the season. In 42 games in December, February and March, he blocked a total of four shots. But he had eight blocks in January.

After shooting terribly in his first two years in the league, Brewer hit a trey per game, knocking one down in a team-record 33 straight games at one point, and shot a respectable 34.9% 3P. He was certainly streaky from the field, shooting 38.3% FG in November, 46.5% in December, and 47.0% in January, but then only around 42% the rest of the way. He only shot better than 70% from the line in two months, and was at 54.5% in February. With the Wolves looking to bring in a high-usage wing player this offseason, it might be hard for Brewer to average 30.3 minutes next season, and if he does, he probably won’t get 11.6 FGAs per game. At 6-9 with super-long arms, the former Florida star could be evolve into a Sefolosha-type if he is paired with a high-scoring swingman. He’ll always get enough buckets in transition, however, to be a double-figure scorer.

SF Ryan Gomes
After a strong finish in 2009, E advised us not to sleep on Gomes, citing his ability to fill it up from downtown. Gomes was a steady performer who had some big games along the way, but Flynn and Brewer wound up taking more 3s, and Gomes finished with 74 treys in 76 games. His scoring averaged dipped from 15.2 in the second half of last season to 10.9 this year. His 4.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .8 steals and .2 blocks were pretty much in line with his career averages. He was good for 11.5 points and 5.9 rebounds in Novemeber while Love was out however. Gomes finished very strong, averaging 13.9 points and 2.0 treys on 46.4% FG, 48.3% 3P and 86.3% FT (on 3.1 attempts) in April. He’s another guy whose opportunities could dwindle if the Wolves are successful in landing a top-notch small forward. Gomes’ contract is only partially guaranteed going forward, which makes him a valuable trade asset. Stuck on bad teams his whole career, a trade could help him realize his destiny as a glue guy in the James Posey mold, but might mute his fantasy production.

C Darko Milicic
One of the strangest fantasy happenings this season was the post-break revival of Darko in Minnesota. After being cast-off by the big-man deficient Knicks, profanely characterizing all NBA executives as liars and declaring he was going to play in Europe next season, the former No. 2 overall pick signed with the Wolves on Feb. 21. He wound up starting 14 games, averaging 9.7 points on 50 FG%, 5.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.2 blocks and .9 steals in those contests. He said he would consider returning to the Wolves if he was guaranteed 36 minutes per game, and curiously, Kahn and Rambis seem more open to assuring a major role for Darko than for Love. As a 7-footer with good shot-blocking instincts, Darko might be a better fit next to Love or Jefferson, and if the plan is to move one of those PFs, I suppose it’s possible he could be Minnesota’s starting center next year. For what it’s worth, Darko’s career per-36-minute averages are 11.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.5 blocks and .8 steals.

SG Wayne Ellington
Ellington, who like Brewer was the Final Four’s most outstanding player before declaring for the draft as a junior, shot a respectable 39.5% 3P and 87.1% FT as a rookie, and that was after a slow start in which he hit just 22% of his 3s in the first month. But despite the Wolves’ need for outside shooters, he played only 18 minutes per game. He showed some promise in March, averaging 10.1 points in 22.2 minutes and shooting 50% 3P and 95% FT. His per-36-minute numbers were 13.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.7 3s and 0.5 steals. As E noted in his rookie rankings, the Wolves were better defensively when Ellington was on the floor, however that could be attributed to the fact that he wasn’t playing with Flynn. He’ll be 24 at the start of next season, and it’s hard to project him as anything more than a shooting specialist. Once again, all of the Wolves wing players are in danger of being pushed down next year’s depth chart by a marquee rookie or free agent.

PG Ramon Sessions
Sessions could’ve signed with the Knicks last summer and been the starting point guard in D’Antoni’s fantasy-friendly offense, but because New York was only offering a one-year deal he passed and wound up signing a four-year contract with the Wolves. Kahn initially said Sessions would play off the ball in the same backcourt as Flynn, but Rambis didn’t see any virtue in that combination, refusing to even give it a good look during preseason. Sessions, like Flynn, is better off playing the pick-and-roll game than trying to run the triangle, perhaps even more so because he has only made 10 of 56 3-pointers in his career. He never challenged Flynn for the starting job, although he often got Flynn’s fourth-quarter minutes. Having averaged 6.0 assists in his first two seasons with the Bucks, Sessions dropped to 3.1 dimes in Minny. Lack of minutes wasn’t the only culprit, as his assist rate plummeted from 34.6 to 23.3. Playing four times as many minutes as he did in 17 games as a rookie, Sessions had only twice as many assists. Think that would’ve happened in New York? His FT% also fell from 79.4% to 71.7%, which is disconcerting.

C Ryan Hollins
Before Darko showed up, Hollins was the rim-protecting 7-footer Rambis tried pairing with Jefferson. In 27 starts, the fourth-year player out of UCLA averaged 9.2 points, 3.7 rebounds and a meager .4 blocks in 22.8 minutes. He shot 61% from the field in games that he started but only 50% FG when coming off the bench. He had more FOULS than rebounds 31 times! He scored in double-digits 13 times but never had double-figure rebounds. Hollins’ per-36 block production fell from 2.6 last year and 2.0 the year before to just 1.1 this season, which along with the awful rebounding, helps to explain why Rambis was so eager to embrace Darko.

SF Damien Wilkins
The Jordan-stopper’s son scored the winning bucket in the season-opening win over New Jersey, and started 31 games at small forward, but was hardly a player with owning. In the games that he started, Wilkins averaged 8.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.1 steals, .3 treys and .3 blocks. By March, he was playing less than 15 minutes a night. He is an unrestricted free agent and it’s doubtful the Wolves will bring him back at age 30.

C Nathan Jawai
The 6-10, 280-pounder from Australia appeared in 39 games and was assigned to the D-league twice so he could get some run. His only stretch of consistent playing time came in mid-November when he averaged 6.6 points and 1.8 rebounds in 19.5 minutes. Per-36, he averaged 10.8 points and 9.1 rebounds, but since he shot only 44 percent from the field and barely blocked any shots, one imagines he won’t be playing 36 minutes a game any time soon. He didn’t even get that much time in the D-league, averaging just 21 minutes in four games (he played even less in the D-league playoffs).

SG Sasha Pavlovic
Three years removed from averaging 30 minutes per game during the Cleveland Cavs’ run to the NBA Finals, Pavlovic averaged a mere 12.4 minutes on a bad team that had a need for quality shooters. Problem is, Pavlovic wasn’t a quality shooter this season, at 36.3% FG, 29.7% 3P and 38.5% FT (!). He is an unrestricted free agent who may find better offers waiting for him back in Europe.

PF/C Oleksiy Pecherov
A 7-footer who made 14 3-poiners and shot 90.6 percent from the line (but 41 percent from the floor), Pecherov is an unrestricted free agent who isn’t expected to be re-signed. He had 24 points and eight rebounds in a two-point loss to the Celtics on Nov. 4 and hit double figures in four straight games later that month, but rarely played down the stretch. In five starts, he averaged 10.2 points and 6.0 rebounds. He’ll turn 25 in December.

PF Brian Cardinal
At 32, Cardinal gave the Wolves some veteran leadership but almost no on-court production. His usage rate (8.5) and rebound rate (6.1) were almost non-existent, though his assist rate (32.0) trumped both Flynn and Sessions. He is an unrestricted free agent.

SF Alando Tucker
A former All-American at Wisconsin, Tucker was taken at the end of the first round by Phoenix in 2007. He didn’t play much for the Suns, and was traded for Jason Hart in December. He played a total of 25 minutes in four games with the Timberwolves before getting waived.

C Greg Stiemsma
The 6-11 Stiesma was signed prior to the season finale and is under a non-guaranteed contract for next season. A teammate of Tucker’s at Wisconsin, he didn’t see the court for the Wolves, but averaged 8.8 points, 7.1 rebounds and 3.6 blocks playing with the Sioux Fall Skyforce in the D-league.

KEY QUESTIONS HEADING INTO NEXT SEASON

1. Is Rambis on the Hot Seat?
One would think, after a 15-win debut during which the star player regressed and the last two lottery picks stagnated, there would be pressure on Rambis to show significant improvement in 2010-11. But Kahn noted on the day Rambis was hired that the franchise was sacrificing “short-term results for the long-term vision.” Rambis wasn’t the one who decided to use the No. 5 pick on a player who wouldn’t join the team for two or three years, or use the very next pick on an undersized point guard who is ill-suited for the triangle offense. Kahn may soon have to eat crow on the Rubio/Flynn picks. I doubt he’d be so quick to admit he hired the wrong coach, too. With Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor reportedly losing millions last season, he can’t be eager to pay a coach to walk away after less than two full seasons. And Rambis deserves the chance to prove himself with a more talented and balanced roster.

While the players griped about the constraints of the triangle offense, Kahn supported the system — at least publicly. “What we are looking to do here is A) run, and B) flow into an offense that emphasizes passing,” he said in February.” I grew up in Portland, Oregon, and Jack Ramsay had some beautiful basketball that was really predicated on a lot of triangle principles, on passing and cutting, and looking on the weak side for backdoor cuts. The only way I could see Kahn deciding to part ways with Rambis is if he continued to alienate and limit the minutes of Flynn, Love and whomever the Wolves draft this June.

2. Will Love or Jefferson be Traded, and Who is More Likely?
Minnesota has to make a move here; you can’t bring one of your two best players off the bench, as they did with Love. I’m sure that Kahn would love — er, prefer — to trade Jefferson. Love is younger, cheaper, and with his passing and outside shooting skills, a much better fit for the triangle. Jefferson also embarrassed the organization with his DUI arrest. I believe one of the big reasons why Love was moved to the second unit late in the season is that Kahn didn’t want to depress Jefferson’s trade value, and was hoping that without having to share the floor with another similar player, Jefferson’s numbers would go up.

The problem is, with four years and almost $50 million left on his contract, how big is the market for Jefferson? There was a midseason rumor that the Wolves offered Jefferson to Indiana for Danny Granger, and got quickly rejected. Minnesota has little use for expiring contracts, so they would probably be seeking a standout wing or center for Jefferson, whose cap number this year is $13 million. I don’t see a team that would make a deal like that. Memphis probably wouldn’t sign-and-trade Rudy Gay for Jefferson, because he is too similar to Zach Randolph. Boston would probably like to have him back, but who are they going to give up? Maybe Chicago would be willing to move Luol Deng, but they won’t want Jefferson if they’re able to sign a power forward in free agency. The best thing the Wolves could probably do is move Jefferson to a lottery team with cap room, like Sacramento or Washington, and go all-in with the youth movement. Failing that, I don’t see them getting something better than a Sam Dalembert-Thad Young combo from Philly, or a Ben Gordon-Austin Daye package from Detroit. Both of those deals would work under the cap, and possibly improve the Timberwolves. But they would represent an underwhelming return for a borderline All-Star.

Love, on the other hand, would be a hot commodity on the trade market. At 21, he’s already established himself as an elite rebounder and he’s only due $3.6 million this year. Minnesota does have the cap room to take on a higher-paid player in a deal for Love. One prospective deal I find intriguing would be the Wolves sending Love back home to Portland for Greg Oden. The Blazers could gear up to contend next season with a solid and versatile frontcourt trio of Aldridge/Camby/Love, while the rebuilding Wolves take on the big risk, but perhaps even bigger reward, of betting on Oden. Since the Blazers tend to only make lopsided deals, they probably would insist on the Wolves throwing in their lottery pick.

The fantasy game would benefit greatly if Big Al and Love were on different teams. Jefferson could very well go back to being a top-10 caliber player if he goes to a team that feeds him the ball in the post, especially when you consider that it usually takes two years to fully recover from ACL surgery, which Jefferson underwent last February. He’ll also be motivated to prove himself after a down year. He could be everything Zach Randolph was this season, but with more blocks and worse FT%. To see how Love would benefit from a trade, simply look at the two games Jefferson missed in March, where Love averaged 14.5 points, 18.0 boards and 3.0 assists. His per-36 averages this season were 17.7 points, 13.8 rebounds (best in the league), 3.0 assists, .7 treys, .5 blocks and .7 steals. And a lot of those minutes came with Jefferson on the floor stealing touches and rebounds. While Love projects to be a truly elite rebounder with the ability to average 3.5 assists and 1 trey per game, I don’t think his ceiling is as high as Jefferson’s because of his poor defensive production and middling FG%. He shot 45% for the second straight year, and since he’s a poor leaper who often gets his shot blocked inside (that’s where a lot of his offensive rebounds come from) and takes a couple of 3s per game, I don’t see his FG% rising much.

3. How Will Minnesota Utilize its $15-20 Million in Cap Room?
Kahn, who began what he called a 17-month rebuilding project when he was hired 11 months ago, has said the “No. 1 thing on my to-do list” is to find a player the Wolves can call “our Brandon Roy.” This could be perceived as a dig at previous GM Kevin McHale, who drafted Roy only to immediately swap him for Randy Foye, or an honest admission that the roster lacks a wing player who can create offense. “We need our person who we can get the ball and say, ‘Please stop this, please make this better,’” Kahn told the Star Tribune at the tail end of the season. “It has been revealing how badly we need that star player here. It’s obvious, isn’t it? It’s obvious to anybody.”

It’s also obvious that LeBron, Wade, or even Joe Johnson, wouldn’t even consider playing for a talent-stripped team in the Twin Cities. The Wolves would have better luck luring Adrian Peterson into a basketball uniform. Gay is a very realistic target however. He’s a restricted free agent who is at the point in his career where getting a big contract and being known as the best player on his team might be more important to him than contending for a championship. I wouldn’t expect the Grizzlies to match a max deal, and, in need of reliable bench players, they might be willing to take back Gomes, Sessions (whom they’ve targeted in the past) and a pick in a money-saving sign-and-trade. If Gay can’t be obtained, Travis Outlaw could be another option.

Being so far under the cap may allow Minnesota to get a relatively good player on the cheap, like the Grizzlies did with Zach Randolph last summer. Philly is so desperate to shed payroll, it wouldn’t be surprising if they gave up Dalembert for next to nothing. Of course, since Kahn seems to be following Matthew Berry’s point guards and power forwards “manifesto,” he’ll probably make David Lee his top target, and use the rest of the cap space to sign Steve Blake.

4. What Would the Wolves do With the #1 Pick?
Minnesota has about a 20% chance of winning the May 18 lottery, second only to the Nets. There’s a consensus that John Wall is the best player in the draft, although there was also a consensus that Evan Turner was the best player in college basketball. The Wolves are one of the few teams that might be better off taking the Ohio State swingman, whom DraftExpress.com compares to Roy. He fills their biggest need, and if Kahn spends another lottery pick on a point guard, he’ll never hear the end of the Matt Millen jokes.

But Wall is certainly a better prospect than Flynn, and probably Rubio too. If he realizes his potential, the Wolves will have a superstar at what has become the most important position in basketball. They could then deal Flynn and Rubio for help elsewhere. But there is reason to be wary. As a suspect shooter who desires the ball to be in his hands as much as possible, Wall is even less suited for the triangle than Flynn. A Wall-Flynn or Wall-Rubio backcourt would be exciting, but probably ineffective, especially if Rambis is the coach. If the Wolves win the lottery, they should hope the team drafting No. 2 wants Wall bad enough to trade up for him.

Should Minnesota not land one of the top two picks (there is about a 60 percent chance of this happening), they will likely target Syracuse’s Wesley Johnson, as all of the other top prospects are power forwards. DX likens Johnson to Shawn Marion, but Orange observers, and former practice-mate Flynn, would say Johnson has a more refined offensive game than The Matrix.

5. Is There Any Chance Rubio Comes Over This Year?
To Minnesota? No. If Kahn is willing to deal Rubio to a situation he finds more palatable, the Spanish sensation might be more willing to buy himself out of his current contract. Otherwise, Rubio won’t be joining the NBA until 2011 at the earliest. And its been widely speculated that Rubio will wait until 2012 to come to the U.S., since he won’t be subject to the rookie pay scale at that point.

When Rubio does come to the NBA, I expect him to quickly become a very valuable fantasy player. As a 19-year-old playing on a slow-paced team against top competition in the Euroleague, Rubio was averaging 11.4 points, 7.0 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 2.3 steals and 1.4 3s per-36 in 20 games. Imagine what he could be doing on Mike D’Antoni’s Knicks? His 35.1% FG shooting is terrible, but he is shooting 88.9% from the line on 4.7 attempts per-36.

6. If Flynn Remains the Starter, How Much Improvement Can We Expect?
Don’t let the big smile fool you; Jonny is a cutthroat competitor deep inside, and he surely noticed that point guards he was considered to be better than before the draft wound up being more productive as NBA rookies. He’s spent time working out with Chris Paul and LeBron in summers past, and has indicated that he wants to spend time with Idan Ravin, the “The Hoops Whisperer,” this offseason. He’ll certainly show up to camp a better player, but how much his stats improve depends on A) whether he becomes more comfortable in the triangle offense in his second year, and B) if Rambis is willing to give him more freedom. Both of those variables will effect his minutes.

As a rookie, he played 25 minutes or less 21 times, despite starting 81 games. His per-36 stats were 16.8 points, 5.5 assists, 2.9 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 1.2 threes and 3.6 turnovers. Not bad for a 21-year-old, but clearly there’s still room for improvement. I expect Rambis to trust Flynn a bit more next season, and thusly give him more minutes. But the triangle will continue to hurt Flynn’s stats. Adding some scoring punch on the wings should lead to a few more assists, and probably a higher FG%. When Flynn sets his feet and jumps straight up in the air, he can be a very good shooter. His excellent 82% FT reflects this. But his box scores usually tend to tell a different story because he often forces off-balance pull-ups and wild drives in which he is trying to draw fouls.

7. Who the Heck is Nikola Pekovic?
I never heard of the guy before I started researching this piece, but apparently the 6-11 Serbian drafted with the first pick in the second round in 2008 is an offensively-skilled big man who should’ve gotten the Euroleague’s Rising Star Award two years ago instead of Danilo Gallinari. Kahn has called him “an Adonis” and DraftExpress projects him to be something in between Rasho Nesterovic and Al Jefferson. In 13 Euroleague games at age 24, he averaged 24.2 points per-36 on 60.7% FG shooting. Most of the Wolves fans on the Real GM forums regard Pekovic as a solid trade chip.