Season Recap #4: Sacramento Kings

Will Spencer Hawes bounce back from a subpar 2009-10 season?

While I’ve recently brought some excellent new writers on board, you can rest assured that I’ll continue to be dropping in-depth analysis of my own. So without further ado, here is my Sacramento Kings Season Recap.

by Eric Wong (Evil E)

LAST SEASON (Bad, but promising):

The Kings finished with a 25-57 record, which was 3rd worst in the league. They missed the postseason for the 4th year in a row, and for the 2nd year in a row, their attendance ranked 29th out of 30 teams. Their swingman combo of Francisco Garcia & Kevin Martin combined to play just 47 games for them, as Garcia missed the first 3 1/2 months of the season with a fractured forearm, and Martin missed over 2 months early on with a fractured wrist. After 5 1/2 seasons in a Kings uniform, management decided to trade away the high-scoring but oft-injured Martin to the Rockets.

Still, there were several positives to take from last season. Tyreke Evans proved to not only be NBA-ready, but that he’s a superstar in the making. The emergence of Evans is what made Martin expendable, and this team has a much brighter future with Tyreke leading the way. Fellow rookie Omri Casspi also showcased some fine skills, and Beno Udrih had a breakout season of sorts. In exchange for Kev-Mart, the Kings got the ultra-efficient Carl Landry in return, a very tough and reliable player. And while they didn’t win a lot of games, veteran coach Paul Westphal laid down a solid foundation for the future, and they competed hard every night (their -4.4 point differential was better than the Wizards, Pistons, and Clippers, teams that all finished with superior records).

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR (Tyreke Evans):

First, let’s get the basics out of the way. Evans joined LeBron, MJ, and the Big O to become only the 4th rookie in NBA history to average 20+ points, 5+ rebounds, and 5+ assists. He also won Rookie of the Year honors, taking home 67 1st place votes and 491 total points, compared to 43 and 391 for Stephen Curry, and 12 and 204 for Brandon Jennings. But you already knew that. Next, let’s give some props to a guy named Charlie Scott, because he averaged 27.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 5.6 assists in 1970-71 with the Virginia Squires of the ABA. Now sure, his team averaged a whopping 123.3 points per game that year, but he still accomplished the same feat as those “other” guys, and he WAS a key member of the 1976 Boston Celtics championship squad (Scott was 3rd on the team in scoring, ahead of John Havlicek, Paul Silas, and Don Nelson).

Evans surprised a lot of people in his rookie season, because most thought that he was going to be more inconsistent and endure more growing pains. After all, he averaged a mere 3.9 assists to 3.6 turnovers in his only year in college, and his shooting range and touch were suspect to say the least (27.4% 3P, 71.1% FT at Memphis). He certainly didn’t look like a point guard in college, and there were definite concerns about how well he’d be able to play alongside Kevin Martin. And those concerns loudly persisted for the first 5 games of the season, as Evans averaged just 11.2 points on 35.5% FG shooting early on en route to 4 losses and 1 home win over the measly Grizzlies. And then Martin hurt his wrist…

The injury to Kev-Mart seemed to be a burden lifted off the shoulders of not only Evans, but his teammates, coach Westphal, and the Sacramento fans as well. In my opinion, Martin had become a very selfish and unreliable player who often forced the issue for Sacramento, and the entire team dynamic changed when he went down (again). Tyreke suddenly became their go-to scorer and primary creator on offense, and the fact that the Kings won 8 of their first 12 games with him at the helm did not go unnoticed. I watched most of those games, and the body language and energy levels of Kings teammates and fans went from disinterested and unconfident to excited and cocky. Surely management (and Martin himself) noticed this as well, as they quickly put their explosive scorer on the trading block.

Much like in college, Evans showed that he had no problem getting to the rim and either finishing or getting fouled. His 6.5 free throw attempts per game ranked 17th in the league, and he became only the 3rd rookie since 1998 to average 6+ freebies per contest (Elton Brand in ‘99-00 and Carmelo Anthony in ‘03-04). While being neither ultra-quick nor uber-athletic, Tyreke is deceptively good in both areas, and his body is built like a tank. Since his offensive game is still very unrefined, his usual favorite move is to simply put his head down and bully his way to the rim. In fact, the last player who I remember doing this as often as Evans was Ron Artest circa 2003-2005 with Indiana, when Reggie Miller was on his last legs. But when you have a body like Reke’s or Ron-Ron’s, why not play that way?

Well, it’s not the most effective way of scoring points, and it’s not the most conducive way for getting your teammates involved either. Unlike Curry & Jennings, Evans is nothing close to being a pure point guard. However, I don’t think this is an issue of him being selfish or unable to create for his teammates, but rather the fact that he’s so used to simply getting the ball & driving to the rim and scoring. But sometimes he goes in attack mode and takes on 3-4 defenders at once without even looking for an open teammate, which obviously needs to improve. Tyreke’s 5.8 apg average this past season was nothing special, but he showed some promise in March by handing out 7.5 Stocktons per game.

Statistically, Evans was a Top 50 player as a rookie, but to take his fantasy game to the next level, he must become a better shooter, both from the free throw line and from beyond the arc. Since he’s likely going to be among the league leaders in free throw attempts every year for the next decade, what % of those shots he converts will be key. While his 74.8% FT mark as a rookie was below the NBA norm, he actually made 80.5% of his freebies (207-257) from November-January and he was 3.7% points better in ‘09-10 than he was in ‘08-09, suggesting that this is an area where he will continue to improve. However, Evans really struggled from the 3-point line, making just 25.5% of his treys on 2 attempts per game. To become an effective outside threat, he only needs to make around 32-34% of those shots, but he won’t improve drastically overnight. Rather than projecting a huge jump in made threes and 3P%, it’s smarter to wait and have him prove that he can do it first.

Defensively, Evans was nothing special as a rookie, but he has the tools to become a very good defender. His lateral quickness is solid, his 7-foot wingspan is scary, and he’s stronger than most of the guards that he goes up against. However, those tools do not translate to sound fundamentals, and he often takes the easy way out by trying to reach with his arms rather than moving his feet. He gets beat off the dribble more often than he should, and this problem is compounded by the fact that the Kings don’t have a shot-blocking intimidator in the middle to help him out. Of course, Evans will need some help from his teammates if he’s to continue improving his game, so below we’ll examine what kind of players the Kings can acquire to make things easier for him.

DISAPPOINTING VETERANS (Francisco Garcia & Andres Nocioni):

Heading into the ‘09-10 season, there were high expectations for both Garcia & Nocioni. After all, both players had posted strong stats for the Kings in ‘08-09 (after the Salmons trade, Nocioni was their 2nd leading scoring and Garcia was #3). Instead, both guys had forgettable years. As mentioned above, Francisco broke his forearm before the season even began. In mid-October he was doing dumbbell bench presses on an inflatable physio-ball like usual, when the thing popped and the freak injury ocurred. In one of the nicest gestures of the season, the Kings immediately sent out a memo to every other NBA team warning them of what could happen.

Garcia finally returned right after the All-Star break, but naturally, it took him awhile to get back in the swing of things. In his first 6 games, he averaged a mere 15 minutes and 6 points per game on 44% FG and 30% 3P shooting. Things improved after that, as ‘Cisco posted modest averages of 25.5 minutes, 8.7 points, 1.1 threes, and .8 blocks on 47% FG, 41% 3P, and 91% FT shooting in March & April. But it was too little too late for anyone who drafted Garcia, and now most fantasy owners don’t know what to expect from him in 2010-11.

Just a couple of weeks after Garcia’s injury (and only 5 games into the season), Andres Nocioni was arrested for drunk driving in downtown Sacramento. He apologized and was eventually suspended 2 games for the incident, but it seemed to act as a rain cloud that hung over him all season long. In fact, he set career-lows in minutes (19.7), rebounds (3.0), free throw attempts (1.3), FG% (39.9), and FT% (71.7), and his 8.5 ppg average was just barely better than the 8.4 points that he averaged as a rookie. Surely, this was NOT what Andres expected before the season began.

Yes, he did make over 38% of his threes for the 4th time in the past 5 years, but he contributed little else, which is why his playing time declined. Quite simply, Omri Casspi is a far superior defender, so as long as he’s knocking down shots, he’s going to get the nod over Noce. Even when Garcia & Martin were out, the Argentinian was not a reliable fantasy player, and the addition of Carl Landry made it even harder for him to get on the floor. These factors do not bode well for his future in Sacramento, but he still has 2 years remaining on his contract (team option for a 3rd, which they’ll surely decline).

PROMISING PRODUCTION (Omri Casspi, Beno Udrih, Donte Greene):

Tyreke Evans wasn’t the only Kings rookie to make a splash. Despite the heavy pressure of being the first Israeli-born player in the NBA, Omri Casspi had a very fine season, just missing out on All-Rookie 2nd Team honors. Coming into the league he was known as a scrappy defender and an energizer on offense, but he surprised many by proving to be a reliable 3-point threat as well. For the first 3 months of the season, Casspi posted some rock solid numbers, but he faded hard down the stretch, and one has to assume that his mind & body were not ready for a full 82 game marathon.

In 50 games before the All-Star break, Omri averaged an impressive 27.9 minutes, 12.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, .7 steals, .3 blocks, and 1.2 threes on 47% FG and 39% 3P shooting. But in 27 games after the break, those numbers plummeted to 19.8 minutes, 7.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, .6 steals, .1 blocks, and .6 treys on 39% FG and 32% 3P shooting. That’s quite a drop-off, but one can’t help to be optimistic about that first set of stats. However, one area where he struggled both before the break and after was his free throw shooting. Casspi made just 67.2% of his freebies as a rookie, and there was only one month (February) where he shot over 74% FT.

Another foreign player who impressed was Beno Udrih. In his 6th NBA season, the Slovenian posted career-highs in points, assists, steals, threes, and FG%, while lowering his turnovers considerably. Obviously, the addition of Tyreke helped Beno out quite a bit, taking pressure off of him on both ends of the ball. But even when Evans missed 5 games in late March, Udrih took over, averaging a whopping 18.2 points, 11.8 assists, 6.4 rebounds, 2.4 steals, and 1 trey in 42.6 minutes per game! Udrih had NEVER put up stats like that before, but he simply played with a ton of confidence all season long.

Naturally, one might not trust the point guard to shoot over 49% from the field again considering his previous career-high was 46.3% FG, but take a closer look at his split stats. Udrih shot 52% or better from the field in November, February, and April and over 47% FG in both December and March. Thus, his only poor shooting month was January (43.8% FG), when he was playing through plantar fasciitis and had to adjust to the return of Kev-Mart. At 27 years old, Udrih is in the prime of his career, and he’s finally found his niche playing alongside the physical Evans.

Another breakout player for Sacramento was Donte Greene. The lengthy forward barely played as a rookie in ‘08-09, posting a measly 3.8 points in 13.2 minutes on 33% FG shooting. But he earned a much larger role in ‘09-10, and improved his stats across the board. The 22-year old even started 50 games for Westphal, averaging 24.6 minutes, 9.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, .9 treys, .8 blocks, and .6 steals on 43.5% FG and 36.5% 3P shooting in those contests. He was even more efficient when he came off the bench, making 46% of his field goals and 40% of his treys when he didn’t start.

With his size, athleticism, and 3-point range, Greene has a unique and useful skill set. However, he often jacks up ill-advised threes, his strength & toughness is lacking, and he’s a very poor free throw shooter. Of course, he’s still very young and has plenty of room for improvement. His role moving forward remains to be seen, but he might be better suited as a shooter off the bench than as their starting small forward.

INCONSISTENT YOUNG BIGS (Jason Thompson, Spencer Hawes, Jon Brockman):

Thompson started the season off STRONG, averaging 36 minutes, 16 points, and 9.2 rebounds on 51% FG and 76% FT shooting in November & December. At that point, his fantasy owners were thinking they had gotten a draft day steal. Unfortunately, things went downhill quickly after that. In January & February, JT’s playing time dropped to 27.3 mpg, and he averaged a mere 9.3 points on a disastrous 39% FG and 64% FT shooting. He picked up his play in late March, but an injury to Spencer Hawes certainly helped his cause, and it was too little too late for his owners.

One problem with Thompson is that he still struggles with foul trouble. This past season he led the league with 3.72 fouls per game, a year after finishing 2nd in that category (behind Greg Oden) with 3.83. On a per-36 minutes basis, he actually cut his fouls down from 4.9 to 4.3, but he still takes himself out of games far too often by committing silly fouls. His penchant for fouling would be a bit easier to swallow if he was a big-time shot-blocker, but he’s not, as his career average is 1 block per 36 minutes. Quite simply, his defense still needs a lot of work, and he’ll never be a lockdown defender.

Offensively, Thompson has a nice shooting touch, but he settles for jumpshots far too often. According to 82games.com, 57% of JT’s field goal attempts this past season were jumpers, but his Effective FG% on those shots was only 37.2%. By comparison, only 49% of Carlos Boozer’s field goal attempts this past season were jumpers, even tho his Effective FG% on those shots was a far superior 44.8%. Until he cuts back on his fouls and jumpers, his minutes and production will continue to be rather inconsistent.

As for Spencer Hawes, he shot himself in the foot before the season even began. Back in July of 2009, he decided NOT to play in the Vegas Summer League, which clearly disappointed/angered GM Geoff Petrie and new Head Coach Paul Westphal. Hawes got off to a decent start (28.4 minutes, 11.3 points, 6.8 boards, and 1.4 blocks on 48% FG shooting in November), but soon after, his minutes went up and down like an elevator. In January & February, there were 10 games where he saw 30+ minutes of action, but 13 games where he received between 0-22 minutes. In a February 23rd home game, Hawes was forced to sit on the bench in street clothes after openly questioning & criticizing his coach in the media. Thankfully, this “altercation” produced a hilarious video.

Unfortunately, Spencer’s fantasy owners were not laughing, as the young center could not be relied on most of the time. He flashed his fantasy potential with lines like:

21 points, 11 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 blocks vs. Memphis (11/2)
24 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks, 2 threes vs. Houston (11/21)
17 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks vs. Cleveland (12/23)
30 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 threes vs. the Lakers (1/1)
18 points, 13 rebounds, 3 blocks, 1 three vs. the Warriors (1/8),

but he had lots of duds along the way. While Hawes made a respectable 49.4% of his 2-point shots (up from 48.6% the year before), he shot just 29.9% from 3-point land (down from 34.8% the year before). While he’s a very capable outside shooter, he probably doesn’t spend enough time working on his low post moves, and he’s far from being an intimidator on defense.

Like Hawes, Jon Brockman attended the University of Washington, where he was a rebounding machine. This skill translated well to the pros, as he pulled down 11.7 boards (5.8 offensive) per 36 minutes as a rookie. In a Jan. 18 game at Charlotte, Jon showed how strongly 1-dimensional he is by pulling down 14 rebounds and picking up 5 fouls in 30 minutes without scoring a single point. But Brockman barely played down the stretch, and his upside is extremely limited. He’s a restricted free agent this summer because he only signed a 1-year rookie deal, but the Kings might bring him back for close to the minimum.

HUGE TRADE (Kevin Martin for Carl Landry):

In 5+ seasons with the Kings, Kevin Martin had just ONE postseason appearance (‘05-06 with Bibby, Peja, Artest, and Brad Miller). He quickly emerged as one of the league’s top scorers, but he couldn’t be counted on to stay healthy for a full season. Eventually, management realized that they were not going to be a winning team with him as their #1 option. So after much speculation, on Feb. 18th, 2010, Martin & Hilton Armstrong were sent packing to Houston and Sergio Rodriguez was shipped out to New York, with the Kings getting Landry, Joey Dorsey, and some cash in return. Getting rid of Martin was the signal of a new era, and shows that Sactown management wants to keep Evans happy.

Of course, getting Landry in return was a major coup. As predicted by RotoEvil before the season, the power forward was enjoying a breakout season with Houston, and at 26 years old, he’s in the prime of his career. In his first 4 games for Sacramento he averaged a modest 15.3 points and 5.5 rebounds, but after that he started to assert himself. In the 24 games that followed, Carl averaged a rock solid 37.9 minutes, 18.5 points, 6.7 boards, and 5.1 free throw attempts on 52.7% FG shooting. For the season, he was 1 of only 10 players to average over 16 ppg while posting a True Shooting Percentage of 60% or better. Not only is Landry an efficient scorer in the paint, but he’s very reliable from the free throw line as well, as he’s has made over 80% of his freebies in 2 straight seasons. With a salary of only $3 million for the 2010-11 season (the last year on his current contract), Landry is one of the best bargains in the league. He’s also one of the toughest guys around, as broken teeth and gunshot wounds barely seem to phase him.

EXPIRED VETERAN CONTRACTS (Finally!):

For the 2009-10 season, Sacramento had to pay Kenny Thomas $8.5 million, Shareef Abdur-Rahim $6.6 million, Mikki Moore $2.0 million, Sean May .98 million, Ime Udoka .92 million, and Dominic McGuire .83 million. ALL of those contracts have now expired, freeing up about $20 million dollars in cap room. The expensive contracts of Thomas (Kings paid him $39 million over 5 years) & Abdur-Rahim (Kings paid him $23 million over 4 years) had really hindered the franchise in years past, as both players’ games declined a long time ago.

Abdur-Rahim actually worked as an assistant coach for the Kings this past season, and it would be nice to see him remain in that role. For Kenny Thomas and Sean May, their NBA careers are likely over (isn’t it more fun to watch May eat donuts anyway?). I suppose that Moore, Udoka, and McGuire could sign veteran minimum deals with another team, but at this point in their careers, they are 12th men type guys at best (I highly doubt the Kings want them back). Now that those veterans are off the books, Andres Nocioni (2 years, $13.5 million left) is really their only “bad” contract. For NBA teams like Sacramento, financial freedom feels very nice.

COACHING STABILITY (Paul Westphal):

The main story in Sactown was Evans winning Rookie of the Year honors, but the “under the radar” story was Westphal’s (somewhat) successful return to coaching. His last head coaching gig was with Seattle from 1998-2000, but he’s best remembered for coaching those high-powered Phoenix Suns teams from 1992-1996. Westphal did spend one season as an assistant under Avery Johnson at Dallas, but he was essentially waiting for the right head coaching opportunity to come along.

The interesting footnote here is that Westphal wasn’t the Kings first choice. They first offered the job to Kurt Rambis, but he turned them down and eventually accepted Minnesota’s offer. Well, after watching the T-Wolves tumultuous season, I’m sure that the entire Sacramento organization and their fans are grateful they got Westphal instead. Much like his previous stint in Phoenix, Westphal played an uptempo game, with the Kings ranking 7th in pace factor (but only 18th in points per game). I consider his Sacramento debut to be successful because he seemed to be on the same page with their new star player, and he got a young & inexperienced team to compete hard almost every night. Now, I’m not suggesting that he’ll pull off a Scotty Brooks-like +28 win turnaround in year two, but their future looks promising.

5 KEY QUESTIONS

1. Who Will They Select in the Draft?
Despite having a 47% chance of landing a Top 3 pick, luck was not on the Kings side in the lottery process. Instead, they fell two spots and were “awarded” the 5th overall pick. They also have the 33rd overall pick, so a high quality player could fall to them in round 2. As far as team needs go, Evans & Udrih are each locked up for several more seasons, so they don’t need a point guard. And with Landry & Thompson holding down the power forward spot, they don’t need help there either. Garcia & Casspi are reliable outside shooters and solid defenders, but neither man can really change the game with their athleticism. So, an uber-athletic small forward could be just what the Kings need…

Lucky for them, BOTH Al-Farouq Aminu (Wake Forest) and Wesley Johnson (Syracuse) could be available at #5. Both guys stand 6′7-6′8 with long wingspans that allow them to play bigger, and both are big-time athletes who grabbed steals and blocked shots at a high rate in college. One area that distinguishes Johnson is his shooting touch, as he made 1.5 treys on 41.5% 3P shooting last year, while Aminu only made .6 treys on 27.3% shooting from outside. Also, Johnson shot over 77% from the line the past two years, while Aminu was under 70% FT in each of his two college seasons.

However, Al-Farouq got to the line an impressive 6.4 times in just 31.3 minutes per game, while Johnson got only 4.1 FTA’s despite getting more playing time. Of course, Al was relied on more heavily on offense at Wake Forest, as evidenced by his 3.2 turnovers per game (only 2.3 for Wes). In terms of potential, Aminu is considered to have a much higher upside, mainly because he doesn’t turn 20 until September, whereas Johnson turns 23 in July. DraftExpress.com favorably compares Al-Farouq to guys like Josh Smith and Gerald Wallace, and we’ve seen how effectively those two can use their athleticism to impact games. With his ability to run the floor, handle the rock, finish at the rim, and block & contest shots, I think Aminu is the right pick for them.

Of course, if the Kings are worried about the development of Spencer Hawes, then they might be targeting a legit 7-foot center in this draft. One player who they will be examining closely over the next month is DeMarcus Cousins out of Kentucky. The guy had a dominant freshman season, averaging a whopping 15.1 points, 9.8 rebounds (4.1 offensive), 7.1 free throw attempts, and 1.8 blocks in only 23.5 minutes per game. That translates to 25.8 points, 16.8 boards (6.9 offensive), 12.0 free throw attempts, and 3.0 blocks per 40 minutes, making him one of the most productive collegiate bigs in recent memory.

Cousins is a beast of a player at 6′11, 290 pounds, he possesses a 7′6 wingspan, and he doesn’t turn 20 until August. In addition to excellent size, he has soft hands, a nice shooting touch, and a variety of offensive moves. However, while there’s no doubting his sheer physicality, there are questions about his mental toughness, and concerns about his maturity level and off-court behavior. Are the Kings willing to gamble on a 19-year old with question marks, and more importantly, do they have the coaching staff and veteran leadership in place to develop Cousins properly and keep him focused and under control? If DeMarcus is picked before them or if they’re scared off by his red flags, then they’ll at least consider Cole Aldrich out of Kansas with the #5 pick, a guy who would be the safer pick with less upside.

If they pass on a center with their 1st pick, then they’ll probably hope to get lucky in the 2nd round. DraftExpress currently projects them to use their #33 pick on a Serbian center named Miroslav Raduljica, but 6.4 boards and .3 blocks in 26.6 minutes in the Adriatic league doesn’t quite do it for me. Instead, I would rather see them gamble on the Jamaican Jerome Jordan out of Tulsa. Jordan posted 15.4 points, 9.1 boards, 2.3 blocks, and 2.8 fouls in 29.8 minutes this past season, shooting 55% from the field and 69% from the line (a more respectable 73.7% FT the year before). He has intriguing potential because he sports a 7′6 wingspan, a solid mid-range jumper, and he didn’t start playing basketball until the age of 17. Of course, similar things were said about Patrick O’Bryant, and we know how that’s turned out.

2. Which Free Agents Will They Target?
While drafting a 7-footer with upside makes a lot of sense, it wouldn’t hurt the Kings to sign a veteran big man over the summer. While he might prefer heading to a title contender, would Brad Miller welcome a return to Sacramento? The fans have fond memories of Miller, and Hawes seems to need more tutelage. Having a reliable big guy who can come off the bench and stretch the floor to keep the paint unclogged for Tyreke Evans would be very useful, so they should also consider guys like Rasho Nesterovic, Steve Novak, and Matt Bonner.

For an attendance boost, one very intriguing name is Nate Robinson. If you recall, there were several rumors about Sacramento possibly trading for Nate before the 2009 trade deadline, but a deal never materialized. Now that Nate-Rob is a soon-to-be free agent whose value has declined since clashing with Mike D’Antoni and barely playing for the Celtics, the Kings might be able to sign him for a reasonable offer. He would be an excellent sparkplug off the bench for this team, because he could play off the ball and they wouldn’t have to worry about him playing alongside Tyreke Evans since Evans is big enough to defend most shooting guards. The Kings have lots of money to spend this summer, but quite frankly, I don’t think any of the bigger name FA’s will want to play in Sacto.

3. Will Francisco Garcia Bounce Back?
As detailed above, Garcia had a disappointing season due to a freak weightlifting accident. It was actually his 2nd injury-plagued year in a row, as he missed 17 games at the beginning of the ‘08-09 season due to a serious calf injury. So priority #1 for Garcia is to start the ‘10-11 season healthy. He DID play 79 games in both ‘07-08 and ‘06-07 and his injuries have been rather freakish, so we shouldn’t start calling him Kevin Martin or Devin Harris. And he still has 3 years left on his contract (team option for a 4th), so he remains a key piece to Sacramento’s puzzle. So just how will he fit in next season?

Well, a lot depends on who the Kings select in the draft and sign via free agency. If their main addition is a big man, then that will bode well for ‘Cisco. But if they add a sweet-shooting swingman, that’s simply more competition for minutes. Assuming they don’t draft Wes Johnson or sign Rasual Butler, then Garcia should get a chance to play 28+ minutes again (he averaged 30.4 mpg in ‘08-09). While capable of playing both shooting guard and small forward, he’ll get squeezed off the floor when Sacramento plays Udrih, Evans, and Casspi together.

But let’s remember that the Dominican is one of their best outside shooters, having made over 39% of his threes in each of the past 3 seasons. Since Tyreke’s specialty is driving and not shooting, having deadly shooters on the perimeter is key. Garcia is also an efficient scorer since he shoots free throws at an excellent clip (career 80% FT) and rarely takes bad shots. Moreover, he’s a versatile & reliable defender and a very capable ball-handler. He was one of only a handful of players to average 1+ three, steal, and block in ‘08-09, giving him sneaky fantasy value. For 2010-11, it wouldn’t surprise me if Garcia sets a career-high in threes while continuing to rack up steals and blocks and posting solid shooting percentages.

4. Who Will Start at Center?
Assuming they don’t draft Cousins/Aldrich, sign a top free agent center, or make a trade, it’s going to be Jason Thompson & Spencer Hawes battling once again for the starting C position. Last season, Thompson started 17 games at center (41 at PF) and came off the bench 17 times, while Hawes started 56 games at center (3 at PF) and came off the bench 13 times. Ideally, Hawes is better suited for that position, since JT is more of a natural 4 man. However, Hawes is still just 22, and he’s yet to prove that he can be relied on night in and night out.

Really, it all depends on who works out harder this summer, and who endears themself more to Paul Westphal. IF Hawes adjusts his attitude and shows that he’s committed to the team, then I believe he has the inside track. After all, he has 3-point range to keep teams from collapsing on Evans, he’s a great passer, he’s the longer & taller defender, and he has more upside. But as Westphal tried showing Spencer last year, the starting job won’t be handed to him. Right now (still very early), I’ll project 36 minutes for Landry at PF, 30 minutes for Hawes at C, and 24 minutes for Thompson off the bench (with Brockman and/or FA signee fighting for minutes as well).

5. Will They Get a New Arena or Move Elsewhere?
For Kings fans in Sacramento, this is a VERY important question. Arco Arena is the SMALLEST arena in the NBA, with a seating capacity of only 17,317. Obviously this limits how much revenue they can make, altho it doesn’t even matter since the place rarely sells out these days (their total attendance figures have ranked 29th, 29th, and 27th the past 3 years). In 2006, there was a proposal to build a $600 million facility in downtown Sacramento that would have been largely funded by a .25 cent sales tax increase over 15 years. This idea was loudly rejected by voters, and the Maloof brothers have been trying to come up with an alternate plan ever since.

A more recent idea is for private developers to purchase the 350 acre Cal Expo area, where California’s state fair is held every year. A new arena would then be built on the Cal Expo grounds, and Arco Arena’s current area would be re-designed for the state fair. Of course, there are lots of ins and outs to this proposed deal, including the fact that Cal Expo is owned by the STATE of California. We also have former NBA star and current Sacramento mayor Kevin Johnson involved, NBA commisioner David Stern providing input as always, and of course the Governator influencing things however he sees fit.

If you ask me, this is another Seattle/Oklahoma City situation just waiting to happen. Unless the state of California sees to profit quite a bit from such a deal, a new arena is NOT going to be built in Sacramento, or any other city in this state. There is no denying the Maloof family’s ties to Las Vegas (owners of the Palms Casino Resort, among other things), and there were rumors in the past about them moving the team there. Of course, David Stern is publicly not very fond of that idea due to the Tim Donaghy scandal, but I’m sure that a franchise in Vegas would be MUCH more lucrative than Sacramento’s current one.

Crystal Ball Time: I predict that the Kings will continue to play in Arco Arena for 2 or 3 more years, while new Sacramento arena proposals continue to get blocked, rejected, and overruled. Eventually, Stern will give in and allow the Maloofs to move to Las Vegas, where they will quickly become one of the most popular and profitable NBA teams. Not surprisingly, road teams will play unusually bad whenever they come into town, and Vlade Divac will start attending all home games…