Season Recap #6: Los Angeles Clippers

What can we expect from Blake Griffin after missing the entire 2009-10 season?

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by Eric Wong (Evil E)

LAST SEASON (same old story):

For the 15th time in the past 17 years, the lowly Clippers missed the playoffs. How bad has it been for Clipper Nation? Well, since the 1993-94 season, the “other L.A. team” has won 470 games and lost 892, for a sorry .345 winning percentage. That’s even worse than the Warriors (.387 over the same time span)! The unfortunate thing is that the 2009-10 season was supposed to be the year that things changed for them. After all, the Clippers won the #1 pick in the ‘09 draft and used it to select “cant-miss” prospect Blake Griffin. Eric Gordon was supposed to build on a promising rookie year, Baron Davis was supposed to be healthy, and Rasual Butler was supposed to be the missing deadly shooter that they needed.

Instead, Griffin broke his kneecap before the regular season even began, Gordon & Davis struggled with injuries and inconsistency, and Butler needed 73 more 3-point attempts than the year before just to make 5 more treys. Offensively, they ranked in the bottom 5 in several key categories, including: points per game, 3P%, free throws attempted, and turnovers, which resulted in them having the 3rd worst offensive rating in the league, ahead of only Minnesota and New Jersey.

Los Angeles sported a decent 17-18 record after 35 games, but went just 12-35 the rest of the way. In his 7th year with the team, Mike Dunleavy Sr. was relieved from BOTH his head coaching and general manager duties. Interim coach Kim Hughes won over some fans with his honest, straightforward approach, but he went just 8-25 and will not be back as head coach. As long as Donald Sterling is running things, it might continue to be the same old sad story.

SOLID CENTERS UNDER CONTRACT (Chris Kaman & DeAndre Jordan):

After a disappointing and injury-plagued ‘08-09, Chris Kaman bounced back nicely this past season. He easily set a career-high in scoring and shot attempts by averaging 18.5 points and 15.8 field goal attempts on 49% FG and 75% FT shooting. Oddly enough, while Kaman scored between 20-29 points in a game 39 times last year and has now accomplished that feat 73 times in his career, he still has NEVER hit the 30+ point mark! At least he did a solid job of cleaning the glass, finishing 14th in rebounds and 16th in double-doubles.

However, Kaman really struggled to block shots this past season, as his 1.2 rejections per game were his lowest mark since ‘04-05 (his 2nd year in the league). It wasn’t very long ago (‘07-08) that Kaman ranked 3rd in the NBA with 2.77 swats per contest, but now that figure is looking like a serious outlier (his 2nd best mark is 1.55 bpg). At 28 years old and with 7 years of pro experience under his belt, Kaman should be in the prime of his career now. He’s proven to be a solid NBA player and has 2 more years left on his contract, but is he the right fit for the Clippers? (more on that below).

In his 2nd NBA season, DeAndre Jordan showed flashes of solid play, averaging 28.3 minutes, 8.8 points, 8.0 boards, and 1.3 blocks on a ridiculous 74% FG shooting in 12 starts. However, he shot under 39% from the line for the 2nd year in a row, and his per minute stats did not improve. In fact, DeAndre went from averaging 2.8 blocks and 4.5 fouls per 36 minutes as a rookie, to just 2.0 blocks and 4.8 fouls per 36 as a sophomore. That’s not the kind of progress the Clippers were hoping for, and at 21 years old (he turns 22 in July), he still hasn’t proven to be worthy of a full-time starting position. Still, his upside remains very high, and he’ll be a key piece to the Clippers future if they retain him.

RELIABLE BIG MEN LEAVING (Marcus Camby, Drew Gooden, Craig Smith):

Since the Clippers were already out of playoff contention, they decided to send Marcus Camby to Portland before the trade deadline in exchange for Steve Blake & Travis Outlaw. In 51 games for the Clipps, Camby averaged a rock solid 12.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.9 blocks, and 1.4 steals in 31.3 minutes. Marcus definitely stole some boards & blocks away from Kaman & Jordan, and his passing ability from the high post will surely be missed.

Los Angeles also sent Al Thornton to the Wizards before the deadline, getting Drew Gooden in return. The veteran big man turned out to be one of the top late-season pickups for fantasy owners, posting an impressive 14.8 points and 9.4 rebounds on 49% FG and 92% FT shooting over his final 24 games with the Clippers. At first some expected L.A. to buy Drew out so he could sign with a playoff contender, but Gooden didn’t seem to mind posting double-doubles for the hapless Clipps. But now he’s a free agent and will surely have several suitors, so he’s likely to be in another uniform next season.

Another capable big man whose contract is up this summer is Craig Smith. In 75 games for the Clippers he posted a modest 7.8 points and 3.8 rebounds, numbers that are just below his career averages. However, Smith has become a very efficient scorer around the basket, making over 56% of his field goals in 3 straight seasons and averaging 6+ free throw attempts per 36 minutes in 2 straight years. But with Blake Griffin hopefully healthy and ready to go, L.A. no longer needs Smith’s services. He’ll have no problem catching on with another team, but will continue to be a fantasy option only in deep leagues.

HE’LL TAKE A MULLIGAN (Blake Griffin):

After watching Griffin play in the preseason, I was genuinely excited. The guy simply plays with tons of energy and reckless abandon, kind of like a more skilled and uber-athletic version of Eduardo Najera. He’s going to win NBA fans over quickly when he finally suits up in the regular season. Unfortunately, we didn’t get to see that in ‘09-10, as Griffin broke his left kneecap in October and had a follow-up surgery in January to clean up the knee. The Clippers made the right decision to keep him out all year so that he can rehab fully and begin the 2010-11 season 100% healthy. Let’s just hope that his do-over rookie season (and the season after) goes better than Greg Oden’s. Keep reading to see what we can expect from Blake…

BACKCOURT NEEDS TO IMPROVE (Baron Davis & Eric Gordon):

The ‘08-09 season saw Eric Gordon have a promising rookie campaign and Baron Davis have a disappointing debut in his hometown of L.A. But if Gordon could continue to improve and Baron could stay healthy (he missed 17 games in ‘08-09), there was reason to be optimistic about this backcourt for the 2009-10 season. Ultimately, Baron improved but could still not be a consistent force, and Gordon showed that he still has several flaws in his game. Since both players have at least a couple more years left on their current contracts, and since they’re two of the Clippers most talented players, their play NEEDS to improve going forward.

After a brilliant ‘07-08 season with the Warriors, Baron was a huge disappointment in ‘08-09. But he had plenty of valid excuses, the most acceptable being that he struggled with injuries and had trouble adjusting to coach Dunleavy’s style of play. Over the summer of 2009, Davis and Dunleavy Sr. supposedly sat down and talked, and “got on the same page” for the upcoming season. Did it work? Well, Baron DID increase his assist rate, ranking 6th in the league with 8.5 Stocktons per 36 minutes. He also showed a SURPRISING amount of restraint in jacking up threes.

For the first time since 2000-2001, Davis attempted fewer than 4 threes per game. And since he converted on just 28% of those shots from beyond the arc, he made a meager 1.1 treys per contest. Was this really the same guy who had made 2+ treys per game in 5 previous seasons? Fantasy owners who drafted him for that category were certainly bummed out, but he was still a strong source of steals (1.7 per game, 8th best overall) and blocks (.6 per game, 1st among all point guards), and he made a career-high 82% of his free throws.

Unfortunately, BD missed a handful of games (7) once again, and his lack of big-time scoring nights (only 7 games with 25+ points) pointed to a sub-par season. There were short stretches where he looked like an All-Star, but he was not a reliable star night in and night out, which is what this team needs from him. Interim coach Kim Hughes told Baron that he still needs to lose another 10-15 pounds to play up to his abilities, and I definitely support that suggestion. But for Baron’s 2010-11 fantasy outlook, much of it depends on who L.A. hires as its new head coach (see below).

Baron’s injury problems seemed to rub off on Gordon, as the 2nd year guard missed 20 games due to a groin injury, a hamstring injury, a toe injury, a leg injury, and a viral infection. The nagging injuries really prevented Eric from being a consistent fantasy performer, and many people who owned him this past season may avoid him come draft day 2010. Those owners were especially disappointed with his mediocre free throw shooting (74.3%). After draining over 85% of his freebies as a rookie, there was only ONE month (81% in February) where he shot over 80% from the line. This was surely one of the strangest free throw shooting declines of the season, and it’s important because Gordon gets to the line quite often (his 4.8 FTA/game ranked 9th among shooting guards).

At least EG continued to drain threes (1.9 per game on 37% 3P shooting), and his 1.1 steals and .2 blocks per game weren’t bad. Still, Gordon needs to become a better defender, and he needs to expand his offensive repertoire to really take his game to the next level. By examining his cumulative stats on hoopdata.com, we can see that Gordon attempted 281 shots “at the rim” and converted on 59% of those, and that he attempted 321 threes and had an effective FG% of 56% on those (not bad). But from the REST of the court (inside the 3-point line but not at the rim), he attempted just 181 shots and converted on only 36% of those attempts. Obviously, his mid-range game needs some work, but if he can improve that aspect of his game while also doing a better job of creating for others, it will make him a much more potent offensive player.

A SMALL FORWARD RETURNING? (Rasual Butler & Travis Outlaw):

As mentioned above, the Clippers sent Al Thornton packing after 2 1/2 seasons with the team. Thornton proved to be a decent scorer with above average athleticism, but his defense was suspect and he was not a good team player. One player who battled him for minutes in ‘09-10 was Rasual Butler. After 4 rather successful seasons with New Orleans, the Hornets dumped him on the Clippers to save some money. Clipper Nation thought they had gotten a sweet deal, but Rasual had a terrible start to the season, scoring just 9.4 points on 35% FG and 26% 3P shooting in November.

In fact, Butler only had one really STRONG month, where he averaged an impressive 14.6 points, 2.8 threes, and .8 blocked shots on 45% 3P shooting in February. But if you take out that month he made just 31% of his threes, a far cry from the 39% 3P shooting that he shot in ‘08-09 alongside Chris Paul. He had an up & down season, but Butler was still good enough to start 64 games for the Clippers. However, his best role is probably that of a 6th man providing instant offense off the bench. At the age of 31, he also probably wants to play for a contender, something that LAC is not right now. As a result, I have a hard time beleiving that Rasual will be returning to this team.

When Thornton was shipped out, the Clippers replaced him with another athletic forward in Travis Outlaw. After being drafted straight out of high school by Portland in 2003 and playing 6 1/2 seasons with the Blazers, they finally decided to part ways. While Outlaw is a potent scorer and explosive athlete, he relies on his jumpshot far too often and is not much of a passer, rarely looking for open teammates. He’s a decent defender, but you get the feeling that he could be an excellent defender if he expended as much energy on D as he does on offense.

So now Outlaw is a free agent, and since he’s still just 25, he’ll surely be looking for a big payday. The Clippers need a small forward who can create his own shot, and they have plenty of money to spend this summer. First they’ll aim high for someone like Rudy Gay, but if they can’t attract a proven star, they may be forced into re-signing Outlaw. His ability to run the floor with Baron & Blake is at least a little enticing, and his game still has room to grow. I wouldn’t expect huge numbers wherever he goes, but Outlaw has never been a full-time starter, and if he gets that opportunity next season, he could be a fantasy sleeper.

MORE VETERAN FREE AGENTS (Steve Blake, Steve Novak, Ricky Davis, Brian Skinner):

Wasn’t the whole Andre Miller vs. Steve Blake situation in Portland a little strange this past season? That’s why it didn’t surprise anyone when Blake was shipped out to the Clippers before the deadline. The veteran guard averaged 6.8 points, 6.1 assists, and 1.3 treys on 44% FG shooting for the Clippers, and he even started 10 games for them when Baron was injured. At 30 years old, Blake still has plenty of gas left in the tank. In fact, I’d argue that he’s one of the most valuable backup PG’s in the league, and he’ll surely get free agent looks from some playoff teams. But assuming he plays a backup role and nothing more, he’ll only have fringe fantasy value next season.

In my opinion, one of the most under-utilized players of the 2009-10 season was Steve Novak. In ‘08-09 the 6′10 sharpshooter drained 119 threes in 71 games, making them at a sweet 41.6% clip. But despite the absence of Blake Griffin, Novak barely got off the bench in ‘09-10. He averaged a mere 6.7 minutes of garbage time in only 54 games, and his shot went south due to the lack of PT, as he made just 22-of-71 treys (31%). On a good team, Novak could play a key role with his ability to stretch the floor, so he should have no problem latching on with another team.

EVIL E EXCLUSIVE PREDICTION: Steve Novak is going to sign with Miami, where he’ll re-join former college teammate Dwyane Wade. Novak is going to become Miami’s designated “big man shooter off the bench,” and he’s going to average over 1.5 treys on better than 40% 3P shooting once again.

As for Ricky Davis and Brian Skinner getting new contracts… umm yeah, I’m not so sure about that. Davis spent 2 seasons in Los Angeles and he did NADA, averaging just 5.4 points in 72 games over that 2-year span. At least he went from shooting 34% FG in ‘08-09 to a decent 43% FG in ‘09-10, but it’s been a long time since we saw the 20-point per game Ricky, and he’s seeming more and more like the washed-up has-been Ricky. He’s still only 30, but he doesn’t provide the veteran leadership and good role model characteristics that you want from older guys at the end of your bench. However, Davis could probably get a nice contract overseas and still be able to average 15 points, 2 treys, 1 crazy dunk, and 1 technical foul per game in some mid-level Euro league.

Brian Skinner AKA the dude with the filthy goatee has been in the league since 1998. In 605 career games, he’s averaged a journeyman-like 4.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, .9 blocks, and 2.1 fouls. However, he played just 123 total minutes this past season, and is nothing more than a 3rd string center at this point. Some NBA team might sign him, but I’d bet against it.

DON’T LET THE DOOR HIT YOU… (Mike Dunleavy fired):

On Feb. 4th, Dunleavy resigned as head coach, but the team announced that he would retain his GM position. That didn’t last very long however, as Sr. was fired from his general manager duties on March 8th, and without announcement, the Clippers cut off his pay. Considering that he signed a 5 year deal worth $22 million that runs till the end of next season, Dunleavy wasn’t too happy about this. Supposedly he’s still owed about $6.75 million, and a lawsuit seems inevitable. This isn’t the first time that owner Donald Sterling has stiffed one of his coaches, as he tried to avoid paying Bill Fitch before.

In addition to being a financial weasel, a racist, a sexist, and a slumlord, Sterling is simply a shameless egomaniac. Perhaps the most shocking story has to do with his “fake” homeless center. In 2006 he started running full-page ads in the Los Angeles Times touting the “Donald T. Sterling Homeless Center” that he intended to build in the heart of Skid Row in downtown Los Angeles. The ads promised a state-of-the-art $50 million building whose object is to “educate, rehabilitate, provide medical care and a courtroom for existing homeless.” Sadly, Sterling never even started the basic paperwork needed to get such a project off the ground, yet he continued to run the ads for his “skid row mirage.”

5 KEY QUESTIONS:

1. Who Will Their New Head Coach Be?
A recent rumor that is rather intriguing suggests that the Clippers are interested in hiring current Milwaukee Bucks assistant Kelvin Sampson. Sampson coached Gordon at Indiana and recruited Griffin while at Oklahoma, so he clearly has ties to two of the Clippers key players. He also spent a year under mastermind Gregg Popovich, which certainly helps prepare one to be an NBA head coach. In college, Sampson’s teams were usually characterized as strong, physical, defensive-oriented teams. While he’s an intriguing name, I’m not sure if he’s the right fit for Los Angeles.

Another name popping up is the recently fired Atlanta Hawks coach Mike Woodson. Woodson helped Atlanta improve in 6 straight seasons, which is certainly impressive. However, the Hawks pace factor this past season was 4th slowest in the league, and they were 7th slowest the year before. As a result, I don’t think Baron Davis would be very happy if management chose Woodson.

Personally, I would like to see the Clippers hire a relatively young former player. In this case, the two options who I would definitely want to interview are Mark Jackson and Sam Cassell. Both guys were All-Star caliber point guards who are young enough to relate to today’s current generation yet still accomplished enough to command respect. I believe that it will take a special kind of coach to bring out the best of Baron Davis, so it might require a “risky hire” like Jackson or Cassell, unproven guys with zero head coaching experience.

Hiring Cassell could really pay off for several reasons. First, it would help boost ticket sales, and the Clippers attendance numbers could use some help (they’ve ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league the past two seasons). Cassell is a former fan favorite who helped lead the Clippers to their most successful season since moving from Buffalo in the late 70’s (2005-06, when they nearly beat the Suns and came close to advancing to the Western Conference Finals). His fiery and enthusiastic personality also seems like the ideal fit for Baron Davis. Cassell would push the right buttons to keep Baron focused & motivated, while still giving him the green light to simply play his game. Having such a young head coach (Sam is only 40) should also help the development of younger players. And as one of the game’s best trash-talkers in his heyday, you know that Cassell is going to provide countless hours of entertaining soundbytes whenever someone wises up and hires him.

2. Do They Have a Chance to Land LeBron?
Led by #1 fan Clipper Darrell, a group of 75-100 fans dressed in red & blue held a “rally” this past Thursday to try and entice LeBron to come to “the other L.A. team.” After all, they DO have the salary cap space to sign him to a max contract, and it would be lots of fun to have LeBron & Kobe playing in the same home building. But let’s be realistic here. The Clippers franchise is cursed, and Donald Sterling is probably the absolute worst owner in all of sports. Besides Baron Davis, the rest of their roster hasn’t proven anything in the NBA, and James would not enjoy playing 2nd fiddle to Kobe & the Lakers. So no, they’re not gonna land LeBron.

3. Who Could They Add Instead?
As mentioned above, their #1 free agent target should be Rudy Gay. They desperately need a small forward who can create his own offense, play solid defense and run the floor, and Gay is still young & improving. But Rudy is going to have lots of other suitors this summer, so the Clippers better have some backup options. Sadly, Travis Outlaw might be their best one. If they want a defensive stopper with some athleticism, they could target Dorell Wright, but that won’t solve their offensive woes.

In the upcoming draft, the Clippers hold the #8 and #54 overall picks. They would be very happy if Wes Johnson falls to them at #8, but that seems unlikely. Instead, they might have to pick from an assortment of quality big men. This is fine if they can move Kaman (see below), but they should not be trying to draft a backup for Blake Griffin. A big man who Griffin could play alongside is Greg Monroe out of Georgetown. Monroe has the length & size to defend centers, but he also has impressive passing skills (3.8 assists last year).

Another name that they might consider is Damion James out of Texas. The guy averaged 18 points and 6.8 free throw attempts last season on offense, but sports a 7-foot wingspan and projects to be a defensive stopper who brings energy & toughness. In the 2nd round, they shouldn’t hesitate to select speedy point guard Jerome Randle out of Cal if he’s still around, as he would be an excellent change-of-pace PG behind Baron Davis. Another solid option would be combo guard Mikhail Torrance out of Alabama, a guy with Rodney Stuckey size who averaged 5+ assists and nearly 5 free throw attempts per game while shooting 47% from the field and 87% from the line last season.

4. What Can We Expect From Griffin?
First, expect lots of energy and hustle from him. In fact, don’t be surprised if Griffin plays with TOO much energy sometimes and gets a little out of control, perhaps resulting in a turnover or a bad play. But his motor is relentless, as evidenced by his 17.3 rebounds per 40 minutes in college. Defensively, he’s not going to be a big-time shot-blocker in the pros, but he’s an excellent rebounder and will get lots of steals and charges. He also has the strength and quickness to match up with even the strongest and quickest power forwards in the league.

Offensively, he has a nice shooting touch, but he doesn’t have 3-point range and he really struggled from the line in college (under 60% FT in both of his years at Oklahoma). Ultimately, Griffin’s fantasy potential is going to be determined by his free throw shooting, since he’s never going be a 2+ block guy like other big men who struggle from the line. However, he’s going to get lots of easy buckets in transition and he knows how to finish around the rim, so his FG% should be pretty strong. For a big man, his footwork and body control are excellent, and his ball-handling skills may surprise some people.

Early on in his career, one key will be for Blake’s teammates to knock down outside shots to keep teams from double teaming him. Another key will be a coach who lets him play thru his mistakes, rather than yanking him back to the bench every few minutes. But with the Clippers not ready to contend yet, and with several of their bigs likely to leave via free agency this summer, playing time shouldn’t be an issue for Griffin. Assuming he gets 30-36 minutes, I’ll project these kind of numbers:

13-16 points, 9-11 rebounds, 1.5+ assists, 1+ steal, .5+ blocks, 2.5+ turnovers, 50-54% FG, 60-64% FT

5. Will They Try to Trade Kaman?
Chris Kaman had a strong season statistically, but he almost HAD to put up nice numbers due to his extremely high Usage Rate of 27.1%. That placed him 15th in the entire NBA, ahead of guys like Brandon Roy, Joe Johnson, Tyreke Evans, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Aaron Brooks, Russell Westbrook, Devin Harris, Carlos Boozer, Chauncey Billups, Baron Davis, Dwight Howard, David Lee, Deron Williams, Brook Lopez, Andrew Bogut, etc. On a successful team, Kaman should NOT have such a high Usage Rate, but yet he needs lots of touches to be productive. This isn’t a Kendrick Perkins-type player that we’re talking about.

Kaman is an effective post up scorer with lots of moves on the low block. He also has a decent mid-range jumper, but struggles when he faces double teams and isn’t a great passer. He’s a capable shot-blocker, but his overall defense is rather weak, and his opponent often outproduces him. While he’s very big, he’s also very slow, so he’s much better suited to a half-court game. For all of these reasons, I think the Clippers should do their best to trade him this season. He only has 2 years and $23.5 million left on his contract, so he’s not THAT much of a financial burden.

One suggestion sent to me by long-time Clippers fan John L. is for them to send Kaman to Detroit, where he could return to his home state of Michigan. Ben Wallace is a free agent this summer and he can’t play forever, so the Pistons are kind of desperate for a proven center. The Clippers might have to take back one of their bad contracts in either Ben Gordon or Charlie Villanueva, but if they could include Austin Daye or a 1st round pick in the package it would be worth it. Whether it be Detroit or Toronto or someone else, the Clip joint should be exploring their trade options right now.